Objective Gold Futures Analysis The price of an ounce of gold in COMEX:GC1! has declined from a 52 week high of $1704.3 to $1450.9 (a $253.4 decline or -15%). Looking at the volume profile on the left the low 1450.9 is a rejected price; low volume trades at that horizontal price level so is subject to sudden bounces when touched. Again looking at the volume...
Basic technical analysis of support and resistance. Key levels to watch where supply has flipped to demand or in other words resistance has become support. BTCUSD has chopped through the 7888 level over the last two weeks. Historically it is not a clean cut level which makes it difficult to call an entry although that is the nature of cryptocurrencies the...
This is a timeline of the past and upcoming futures settlement dates alongside the beginning of Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4. As the chart is in the 4h timeframe the time of each settlement is off. So note here that Cboe's futures expire at 21:00 (ukGMT) or 16:00 (EST); two days before the third Friday of each month. And CME's futures expire at 16:00 (ukGMT) or 11:00 (EST);...
Before the Winklevoss Gemini ETF was disapproved for a second time by the SEC (July 26th, 2018) I was firmly bullish on BTCUSD. I believe BTCUSD has completed its correction from the all time high (ATH) which I determined using the three-fan principle. Simply three trends spanning from the ATH down through each major upward corrective wave high during the...
The inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern. We have what looks like the formation of the left shoulder and head with a down-sloping neckline. We have something to reverse, a 70% correction and strong bearish downtrend. A successful right shoulder formation is when price does not fall below the left shoulders low which is where our stop will be. I do not...
Price Corrected ~50% from the all time high at December 17th, 2017 This is the largest correction I have personally seen since I started mining in February 2017. Historically in the last 3 years we have closed red in January; (2017, -0.2%) (2016, -14.5%) (2015, -32.4%). We are currently down ~18% for January, 2018. The uptrend from September 17th, 2017 was...
I like to look at potential patterns in market cycles. The VIX has touched 9.40 three times since 1990. December of 1993 December of 2006 June 2017 to present What is interesting about these dates? They all precede the build up of a financial crisis of some kind. Take December 1993, the VIX briefly touched a low of 9.31, 3 years and 7 months later the...
Continuing through the Mt. Gox era to date. I have plotted the end of QE3 and the Rate Hikes to date. Rate Hikes are said to reduce inflation and strengthen the USD. FED announces Operation Twist on September 21st, 2011 The Federal Reserve begins purchasing bonds with 6 - 30 year maturities and selling bonds with maturities less than 3 years. This...
I wanted to project the timing of each Federal Reserve action on to BTC/USD during the Mt. Gox period to see if any correlation at all can be drawn from the FED's actions. I will also do this for the period after Mt. Gox. Quantitative easing is said to devalue a currency and also cause inflation in asset prices. Operation Twist was the buying of long...
1H Ending diagonal leading to potential upward swing in the trend. RSI (14) signalling unconfirmed recent lows with bullish divergence. Stop placement at 109.90 level (recent lows) Long breakout over 111.00 (outside the ending diagonal) Profit Target at 114.37 (the most recent 1H/ 1D pivot high) Preferably price will break upwards out of the ending diagonal and...
The 3 Hard Rules of Elliott Wave Theory and 3 Guidelines Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1 Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves. Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1 Guideline 1: When Wave 3 is the longest impulse wave, Wave 5 will approximately equal Wave 1 Guideline 2: The forms for Wave 2 and Wave 4...
The 3 Hard Rules of Elliott Wave Theory and 3 Guidelines Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1 Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves. Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1 Guideline 1: When Wave 3 is the longest impulse wave, Wave 5 will approximately equal Wave 1 Guideline 2: The forms for Wave 2 and Wave 4 will...
Fundamental GBP Monetary Policy Committee Vote and BOE Minutes May 11th, 2017 UK General Election June 8th, 2017. Technical Left shoulder and head formed. Watching for a reversal at 61.8% or left shoulder high: 7300 - 7350 range. Although horizontal non sloping neckline signalling strong support at 7100 level. Neckline to Head rally of 4.87%. Anticipating a...
Daily head and shoulders forming - expecting a rally to 6950 to form the right shoulder. Short 6950 Stop (Over Head) 7135 Target 6200 TECHNICAL: - Head and Shoulders (LS and Head formed) - Rising Neckline - Expecting a rally to 6950 in line with (LS) - A rally to 6950 would also coincide with a 61.80% retracement of the Nov 4th low. - Anticipate the 20MA moving...
Daily head and shoulders formed - missed short at 4810 (right shoulder 61.8% retracement) |Missed Short: 4810 |Stop (Over Head): 4917 |Target: 4400 | Looking to take a short entry on an hourly pullback next week. TECHNICAL: - Head and Shoulders (right shoulder entry missed) - Flat Neckline - Expecting sell off to test neckline at 4650 - 20MA crossed under...
Daily head and shoulders currently trading around the height of the left shoulder. Short 0.7298 Stop (Over Head) 0.7490 Target 0.6600 TECHNICAL: - Head and Shoulders - Rising Neckline - Trading at height of left shoulder - RSI (14) signalling diverging highs between left shoulder and right shoulder - 61.8% Fib Retracement from Oct 13th Low - 20MA under...
After the recent market decline it looks like a Neckline has formed on the 182.00 Level that has formed symmetrically so far. The Grey Rectangle is an estimate of where a Right Shoulder's High would form if the pattern were to complete. If the Right Shoulder proceeds to form a top in the 199.00 - 202.00 Level I will look to go Short. The Target being the 150.00...
Taken a Long trade on 21/07/2015 @$22.98 Technicals - RSI Crossed Up 30 Level signalling BUY $22.65 ($22.98) - Testing 50 Level on RSI to break into uptrend - Diverging Bottom - Support at $22.50 (Semi-round Number) - Strong 1H Hammer (High = $22.79) - Price has just crossed up through the 20MA - Cyber Security ETF ($HACK) Uptrending but (-8.53% (22nd June...