UnknownUnicorn30297

UnknownUnicorn30297

There have been no big news since the last update in early August, deviation levels and kama verage remained unchanged as well as remained unchanged the threshold of 8300$ that outlines the boundary between the bullish and bearish market.

UnknownUnicorn30297

I have revised the coefficients of the formulas used to calculate the top and bottoms in the two lines of this model: Fair Price Line and Top Line that you already know. Since someone asked me if this model is reliable or not, I decided to include the error bands lines in the indicator. For the calculation of the Top line the error is significant because I used...

UnknownUnicorn30297

If you want to see this chart use the ticker BNC:BLX, weekly timeframe and apply to the chart my last updated indicator "My Bitcoin Price Model v1.0". As i said in my previous published idea i've found that bitcoin follows 2 gaussian PDF ( probability density function ) mixed togheter or GMM (gaussian mixture model). In this chart you can see the first one which...

UnknownUnicorn30297

Analyzing the difference between the Bitcoin price and my FairPriceLine (a price regression of the most important bitcoin bottoms) , I found that the distribution of the price follows two probability distributions (i used the GMM or GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL), one when the market is calm with very low levels of price deviations and the other distribution when the...

UnknownUnicorn30297

I found someone who realized the indicator of the model stock to flow on tradingview, this is a comparison between my model and that one.

UnknownUnicorn30297

The price levels I gave you a month ago worked well because the market remained sideways. I updated the resistance and support areas by slightly changing the settings of the Kama average I use (I increased the smoothing factor from 2 to 3). I confirm that below 8300$ thresold the trend changes from flat to bearish at least in the short term, the previous threshold...

UnknownUnicorn30297

The market is still flat although the bitcoin has managed to return above the Kama average in a position of strength after several weeks below it. A break above the resistance zone (above 12200$) would confirm the recovery of the trend. From tomorrow i'm on holiday, see you in September, there will be updates only in case of emergencies:)

UnknownUnicorn30297

Today bullish activity is pushing away the possible short term bearish scenario i anticipated in the previous tweet. Kama 20 days efficiency ratio still below 0.30

UnknownUnicorn30297 Updated 

Kama average is now in a slight downtrend and when this average is not flat it doesn't make much sense to consider support/resistance price zones. Kama efficiency ratio is close to cross 0.30 thresold where it will confirm the tendency (slightly bearish).

UnknownUnicorn30297

Not much happened apart a quick perforation of the support bands, as i said in the chat it all depends on how many periods are used to compute volatility. Using all historical data available price bands are wider but i prefer to use more recent data.

UnknownUnicorn30297

The short trade of the previous update has been closed at even without losses, another short trade closed right now at profit. The exit logic is simple, in case of a short trade the exit point is the perforation of the first support area, in a long trade at the breakout of the first resistance zone. Same for the entry, when price crosses above the support level...

UnknownUnicorn30297

Below 8500$ the uptrend is over, at least on the daily chart.

UnknownUnicorn30297

This is a first test after the trading system parameters optimization. The idea is to operate when the level of volatility is not too high but not too low either and when the average KAMA is substantially flat because we do not want the trade to be influenced by any primary trend. This trading system tries to operate when the market is quiet, with average...

UnknownUnicorn30297

Bitcoin tried again to move under the support area but failed, however if there is an increase in volatility, let's say an increase of 100%, the support level at $9700 would become $8600. You can try by yourself increasing the BB DEV parameter of Kama v1.22 indicator from 20 to 40. The Kama average used in the chart has as parameters: BB DEV 20 BB PERIODS 500 LENGTH 20

UnknownUnicorn30297

Only above 500$ i'll retract what i said in the title, for me this asset is dead.

UnknownUnicorn30297

As I said in my previous tweet it was likely to stay within the price band range and so it was. First Support Level the Kama Average at around 11400$.

UnknownUnicorn30297

See Chart notes.

UnknownUnicorn30297

Bitcoin is entering a sideway phase and should stay inside the Kama price bands. Kama Efficiency Ratio is confirming this by approaching the 0.3 thresold.