UnknownUnicorn30297

UnknownUnicorn30297

In this update I have added the efficiency ratio of the Kama average, i.e. the calculation of the signal intensity and underlying volatility and their ratio. Personally I use the threshold of 0.3 to identify if the market is flat (below 0.30 of SG) or in a trend (above 0.30 of ER - Efficiency Ratio). I'll publish ASAP the updated version of Kama with the ER ratio (v1.22)

UnknownUnicorn30297

Market is probably directed to form a bottom inside the support area, once again it is important not to fall below $ 9500.

UnknownUnicorn30297

Support Area for who want to try a short term reversal is now 9400$-9900$

UnknownUnicorn30297

For those who want to try to capitalize a strong volatility peak the support area valid only for today is between 9600 and 10100 dollars.

UnknownUnicorn30297

As I commented in the attached chart I highlighted how it is repeating what happened in 2016, when in June the market broke the resistance zone of the bear market.

UnknownUnicorn30297

XBTUSD is approaching 12000$, we need to pass this level for a 100% confirmed inversion on the monthly chart.

UnknownUnicorn30297

The daily average turned bullish, we are on a resistance price zone but I think it will be broken. In case of retracement to act as support is the average Kama at about $ 8300.

UnknownUnicorn30297

In the short term, daily chart, there is a congestion between the kama 20-periods and the first line of price deviation. I don't know where it will break but there remains a conflict between the monthly chart, with a confirmed bullish signal, and the weekly one where the bitcoin seems weak. This is why i'm not buying at market but i'll leave, at least for this...

UnknownUnicorn30297

XBTUSD rebounded from 1st support level, now resistance remains the daily kama at 8130 dollars.

UnknownUnicorn30297

2 possible strategies to enter the uptrend, buy on the breakout or wait a test of the dynamic support area.

UnknownUnicorn30297

This monthly bar will probably close above 7500$ confirming the reversal of the Kama 5 periods monthly average that i use. A break above $12000 this month or the next one would absolutely confirm that we are not seeing a normal bullish reaction inside a bear market but a true recovery of the long term bull market.

UnknownUnicorn30297

I'm testing an indicator for short-term trading along with the well known Kama average and its price deviation bands as an aid to understanding where to take profit and where to close the position. At the moment the indicator is short, resistance is the Kama average and XBTUSD is in a weak position. I added as protection a volatility stop using ATR (average true...

UnknownUnicorn30297

The monthly 5-period KAMA average is now rising although we will have to wait until the end of this month for confirmation. As for the price we are inside the first resistance area, if broken above $7500 then we have another reversal signal. If at the end of the month both conditions are true then is a Buy. Further confirmation will come when the yearly growth...

UnknownUnicorn30297

In this chart in addition to the usual KAMA indicator with updated deviation levels I have added a tool that I use to check volatility and/or persistence P and/or growth factor G that I usually publish every January in the annual update (check the blog). It is interesting to note that on the bottom at $3300 gain factor G was externally negative in a similar way to...

UnknownUnicorn30297

These are the price support/resistance levels derived from the KAMA average updated after the closing of the November monthly bar. I have included the support levels doubling the volatility level to have an idea where the price might go next. At the moment I am not buying, I am waiting to see if the market will go sideways or not. You can still buy at the breakout...

UnknownUnicorn30297

It failed to move above previous top, my recommendation is to HOLD as long as it stays above the support area.

UnknownUnicorn30297

At this point i can conclude that it is a legit price breakout above previous resistance area. Support Zone 7600$-8000$

UnknownUnicorn30297

Possible Buy if price stays above 8150 today and tomorrow, this is what i call a "volatility breakout" but we are not there yet, let see if today and tomorrow the price stays above 8150$.