Very comfortable taking a short at current levels. With markets jittery, oil sector sell-off, further rate hikes on the line, China/US trade deal overhanging, Brexit, Italy, Saudi Arabia. I think there are too many risk-off drivers at this time that are exhibiting pressure on the markets. Momentum picking up, with proper risk management, this could be a good trade...
We have initiated a long position in the GBPUSD with a tight Stop Loss just below the 1.27 level. With equity markets stabilizing, we think there will be some room for a reversion/retracement, short of a reversal since our outlook is for volatility and for more downside to continue in the coming months.
Looking at this 50% Fib retracement as an opportunity to short the pair w/ several stop ideas. First, the 150 level is the 50% fib, and then a the 153 level, which would be the last important pivot high. Of course, somewhere in between may also work, depending on price action and specific drivers in the market. Keep an eye out for the next update.
Looking to short the kiwi at the .72 level. Depending on today's reaction to the RBNZ rate announcement and statement, we may have an opportunity to enter a short position over the next few weeks. This post is just an idea generation for now and I will follow up with more over the course of the next few days.
The risk prevalent in the market doesn't justify the continuation of strength in the majors ex-JPY. The trade war that is being discussed by the media will most likely play out over the next 3-12 months, as Trump is unlikely to back down. While there is an opportunity for the two sides to come to an agreement or, at the very least begin discussing alternative...
I will come back and provide a more in depth analysis over the next few days, but I am beginning to be more convinced that the euro will continue to underperform relative to the dollar. Back with more in the next few days.
The recent momentum against the USD has been fierce. The CAD has gained 10% since in just a few short months and is the best performing G7 currency. I believe its coming to a pause, even with the US Federal Reserve today adding pressure to the USD. If the upward sloping trend-line breaks, look for hooks back before continuation lower. There are many factors which...
The GBP is on the verge of breaking out, both against the USD and the JPY; the USD is also looking to post a breakout against the JPY, which would further support the GBPJPY pair breaking above 148 level and begin its way into the mid 150s. My concern is that any risk aversion could lead to quick reversals and increased vols. Keep an eye on fundamentals as this...
Exploring this potential triangle with the current highs being 62% retrace of bounce from the double bottom base of 1.0500. Short term expecting a move back to 1.07 or as low as 1.0635 with a potential breakout to either direction, most likely to the downside, following negative EU headlines: French elections, Brexit talks, and many other EU concerns that I've...
Take note of the 62% retracement. Money has come in to support prices at the 2320 figure. If more risk aversion takes place on either disappointing earnings announcements or negative headlines surrounding Syria or the Korean Peninsula. then we can expect further deterioration in price, most likely down to the 2260 level in the near term. I continue to prefer...
While we looked at a short opportunity in previous posts, none have seen any momentum and the pair continues to trade lower, near the 50% retracement. While it is possible for the pair to retrace to the 62% or lower, we're looking for a base near current levels. Any risk averse news will send the pair below 136. Tight stops when trading against the trend.
Trade Ideas stopped out on tight stops near 1.2450 level. This is the time to stress the use of Stop Losses and a great example as to what happens if you do not follow the plan. I am now looking for a retracement to the 50% or 62% Fib and will look to reenter the long, pending price action. Stay tuned.
Price compression on the 62% Fib level. I have added to my long but my stops are tight to take advantage of this potential bottom. Tomorrow's NFP could be the catalyst to either "make it or break it".
A bit of volatility without any solid breakout like I expected. I still see a weaker USD and will be looking to add to exit on break below 1.2450. R/R is very good here. I plan on adding to my position on a break above 1.2505, pending price action.
The rally from the 2240 to 2400 level is now exhibiting signs of a top. Yesterday's risk off has not seen any pull back and bears seem to be in control. FX market movements confirm the turnaround and we should now see a move to 2280 as the first target with potential sell-off of 10% down to 2125. Worse case, I see a 15% correction before regaining upside momentum;...
The pair has retraced to 62% and the risk/reward provides a much more viable trade at these levels. Stops are just below 1.06; however, I will adjust the trade dynamically based on new information.
