VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

11/16/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: GATEIO:DOGUSDT I own it in size. (LONG thesis) i'll give you the 2 min thesis and then a bit more spelled out. i purposely don't want to comment *too* much on crypto beyond my wheelhouse which has been bitcoin, the closed end funds and all of which have worked out well. i'm also no stranger to the alt world. have been thru now this will...

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11/14/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:HIMS Don't overthink it. Buy ~$20. - great traction - cash generating - 20 PE on my #s, 22x on consensus for 20% growth - no major stock based comp issue - stock highly rented (call options) by fintwit - Walmart entering their market is MORE CONFIRMATION that they're the leader and CRUSHING it. - so while a lot of gamma is probably...

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11/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PGNY Starter position ~$14 post EPS - don't love the ceo too many "uh's" during the conf call. exhausting to listen to and doesn't build confidence. surprisingly this matters a lot in my process. - but this is "healthcare" biz so i'll think about it a bit more industrially (ironically) - after the 13% off move on miss... you're...

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11/11/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SHLS Rippity do dah? Buyer sub $6 - won lawsuit - NASDAQ:NXT beat... NASDAQ:ARRY beat... NASDAQ:SHLS => beat? - NASDAQ:SHLS is super shorted - valuation not egregious. - options chain paying a lot for higher expires... expect volatility - solar names seem held hostage by "energy" e.g. look at oil, uranium... it's similar...

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11/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:GOOS Probs a buy but i need <$8 - love the product - discretionary and let's be real here... luxury (these things r not cheap)... is getting crushed. NYSE:ELF > NYSE:EL couldn't be more stark. - capital stack has debt ugh. 500 mm on 1 bn cap. basically that shouldn't matter but a. rates high and w/ uncertainty if go higher are...

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11/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: MYX:SMRT Patiently planning into YE - "IOT" name finding it's footing after a lot of accusations in the past that i think are behind, but it's not a world beater. tough to own these things, but it's too cheap to ignore doing some initial leg work on my screen this AM - probably tied to housing still. a good "you'll own nothing and be...

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- i'll probably get some hate for this one, also idc - largest short i've ever had in the book. $1mm. good luck to the longs. - price and momentum are in your favor. i'll give u that. - i'll call BS with a ton of skin in the game. - 40x sales? grows sales 20-25%? margins sub tier software? your gawd alex taking advantage of the meme and dropping 1/3 of his bags....

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6/7/24 - $vrockstar/private - NYSE:ARLO - doing a review today of all IOT-related names given my small 1% (as of now) starter position in NYSE:IOT (go read that for some nuance on sizing). here's a small cap now and my thinking. for now... not worth owning. i need a much better entry. setting target at sub $10 to take a closer look if/when. looks expensive...

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11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ASTS Y'all ready to ball? Bot it! - honestly i'm still pretty cash heavy, so i'm playing ITM calls (and have started taking profits today as well... still hold NASDAQ:META , NYSE:TSM , NYSE:UBER as well as added on the top to my long-dated NASDAQ:NXT 's and hold a nice bag of OTC:BITW too). - but that being said, with...

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11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:KVYO ~$40... Valuation too much vs. comps - new one on my radar and reports this wk so using as an opportunity to augment/ refresh my thinking on ad-tech related names - first there's no denying quality here, in a sense reminds me of NYSE:S in the cyber security space. expensive, but marginal winner. so i'm not going to fade this,...

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11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:OLPX EPS not great, waiting room mid $1's - whenever the CEO opens up a quarterly report with words like "This year has been dedicated to the transformation"... say no more. - I think Amanda has a good product (I use it actually!) and is the right person for the task at hand, but this turnaround won't be easy and probably more of...

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11/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: $ IDX:BIRD More interested $7-8/shr - mgmt is operating on their own time - beyond M&A, it's hard to see how stock really moves higher in the 3-6 month timeframe, unless it catches some momentum in this whacky environment where rando-stuff-moon. but i'd not bet my dog's tennis ball on it - basically mgmt "taking right" actions still e.g....

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- quick share - i love to compare on "pairs" as crypto has taught me: you don't care if your "alt" coin has gone up on it's USD pair (e.g. it's "$/altcoinprice) when it's BTC pair ($altcoinprice/BTC) is down. in other words, you took *more* risk vs. the pair, so you better have made a good return - so why do i make the above point? well... in stonks, nobody does...

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11/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:DDOG probably a buy given HQ B2B is beating... raising... - while 60x PE looks expensive, this is really such a HQ name that unless they guide poorly i'd expect a pretty big reaction to the upside - part of me just cringes at these multiples. but 2% fcf yield for a 20-25% grower isn't "awful" - honestly i don't see an alternative...

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11/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:YETI i'm a buyer into print. good value at ~10% fcf yield - keeping it simple - tariffs matter for a number of consumer names on trump win - "okay". but you see NASDAQ:MCFT 's results? boats and beers are strong, consumer spending, yeti demo has more $ than the five below bros (no disrespect, i love the candy selection there) - but...

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11/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:UBER What's not to like, buying <$75 - cash heavy portfolio looking for some high quality "into-year-end" plays where i can leverage the book with calls in order to keep a. cash heavy for real dips and b. where i think there will be a lot to do, so i want to remain nimble - NYSE:UBER seems to check a lot of boxes. sales growth...

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11/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CELH No edge. Pains me to sit this out. - trading this thing around and following the FUD all over social media has me confused. i'll admit. - on one hand, these things are flying off the shelves and scanner data looks great (that's sell thru!) - on the other hand, i've been seeing a lot of discounting - on the other OTHER hand...

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11/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:MKTX Hard to justify valuation near $300 - a few ways to think about this - first, seems like they've got a nice niche that could be M&A addressable to larger institutions - second, quite correlated to rates, as you can see from this basic 10Y overlay. the disconnect for me in the last 2 yr seems pretty glaring - so you look at...