VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

3/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:OBTC Portfolio update into Q end - thanks for your comments, suggestions, and to the trolls and of course those who challenge my thinking with reason (you know who you are - and I appreciate you keeping me sane and keeping emotion in check). - as I roll into Q end and think about 2Q a few things come to mind as i've chewed, slept...

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3/20/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NVDA Patient, but path to $10 tn - as we reflect on this crack tape, i'd like to share a few thoughts here, hopefully keeping it a bit punchy and we can duke it out/ debate in the comments. - objectively, the level of HPC/ AI compute is accelerating up the S curve. - nvidia's customers are the most price inelastic buyers you...

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3/20/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT better than bitcoin - i fkn love bitcoin - but nextracker generates mountains of cash - and it's not subtle about eating competition. array is getting it's skin torn off as we speak by TrueCapture - forget the wallsheet estimates. they're pansies. they don't neck out. because their job is "keep muh job" been there done that. -...

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2/24/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NKE dead money, bro. - the trends are cooked - jefferies upgrades this to buy and you r chasing it higher on a rough risk day/week/ setup? - trades in the high 30s PE for no EPS growth - you really going to wait in this? - NYSE:DECK is hard enough to own, probably the only ownable shoe co at the moment when factoring returns,...

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3/20/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ARRY Rant - this whole space ((solar)) is a meme - most of these companies are as useless as salad robots, space lasers and google's quantum supremacy - in terms of trackers, you have "the bitcoin" or "the king" or "the only company worth ever investing in" i.e. NASDAQ:NXT and you have... the memes. the companies getting their...

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3/20/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:GLOB I'm back mid 120s - sub 20x pe - AI integrator - down on NYSE:ACN results - ex M&A capex, you're pretty close to 3.5% yield, probably growth understated - going much slower than the initial move i made (which admittedly i feel lucky to have exited monday at a gain) - i'd like to rent this out, confident in product, mgmt - but...

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3/19/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BLBD a buy, but... - mega ROIC's - normalized FCF yields HSD and growing - don't think our busses for skools and prizons r coming from anyone else soon - i.e. nice niche/ moat - stock objectively a buy here - just don't want to clog up the PnL b/c i'm preferring names i think will double (more easily) a 12-18 mo context - but if...

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1/21/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:DCBO Interesting learning co. Buyer in FWB:30S - impressive historical growth - clear opex flex and cash generation (no SBC issues) - multiples while not "obvious" are reasonable - great partnerships w/ leading tech, and B2B focus > consumer - all else equal, stock should be a buy today at $42ish, but i don't have a mandate to...

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3/17/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:JILL Big chicks dig the long ball - co seems to be chugging along - 20%+ ROIC "not bad at all" - pretty niche category - won't be stepping on any lululemon toes and vice versa (*ouch*) anytime soon - i walk by a store occasionally and accidentally make a comment when the wife is with me about going in - and truly accidentally - the...

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3/17/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ARQQ short. - from qubt on friday... to an even lower quality name today, arqq - co has never generated any meaningful revenue - at least d wave has a concept product - these guys have a marketing deck - gl to the longs. - the april 20 P's look pretty good for a micro position to keep that knife short. dare you to send it...

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3/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:QBTS A carrot for the donkey - having closed a lot of shorts early and "missed" a lot of the move (admittedly w cash tho)... i was feeling some FOMO - and while a lot of the market will continue to chop lower with high vol (but we're probably thru the majority of the big drawdown and in needing a bid) - we've got the posterboi...

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3/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:TTAN Not worth $50. - a total avoid - this thing pops and i'll be there to fade - but 10x sales for hardly 20% growth - mediocre mgns - hardly 1% fcf flow - and worst of all, stinky PEs trying to dump their bags on public bag holders. let those trolls hold their own dog poop. - probably a nice mgmt, good company etc. but i'm...

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3/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DECK Rental book - ppl ditch their shoes and go homeless chic in a recession, right? - look. of all the shoe names, this is the only one w the best growth, economics etc. etc. - but what's probably SHTF 20% case low? 7-handle. instead of high $5s EPS, you probably end up near $5 and so instead of 20x PE you're at 15x (remember the...

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3/13/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PATH meh. tough call... pass? - snagged a meager position of this AH -16 or so % - read the transcript. i'm just not impressed. all this "cash generation" is just going to buying back shares of so much stock comp. and honestly, blaming "macro economic" situation for budget decisions being kicked (which that may be true) is just...

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3/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:OLPX welcome back to my PnL - after posting decent results - this premium haircare product co can probably do $100 mn fcf (v miminally) on 1 bn EV is 10% yield - i like the fact that the bar is low, this stock has held its own thru leadership transition - i'm not in love with amanda, but it's probably the fact that i'm not so in...

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3/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NVO Hey now.. mr. mkt. i'll buy some - i'm the first to tell you, i think pharma is rotton to the core - but let's play the game here, emotions r a PnL killa - sub 20x PE for 20-30% GROWTH? - 4%+ cash yields - EU's biggest co (and btw that's great orthogonal exposure to US tech) - healthcare "defensive", and you get growth here? -...

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3/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GCT Interesting. Watching $15, buy $12 - produces >$100 mm cash on round up $800 mm of EV... so yield checks box - has been actually growing - logistics, so mgns are not where i'm used to investing - but LT chart still looks legit - i'm sure tariffs r not helping - adding this one to my e-comm list for if/when $12 so hard to add...

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3/10/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:VST I'm in. - as we rearrange chairs on the titanic - i am actively finding the chairs already generating >5% fcf yield (ideally closer to 10%), growing, not having missed, good charts, mgmt etc. - think i have a portfolio of 20-25 of these. trying to trim down to 10-15 and make them 1.5-2.5% positions each with my core positions...