VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

- momentum is king - but if you've made money, a/ congrats AF and b/ pay yourself - of the quantum names i've tracked (you know the usual suspects, only NYSE:IONQ is legit, the others are varying levels of suck but NYSE:QBTS and NASDAQ:RGTI are better than $arqq...) BUT... - ... NASDAQ:QUBT is basically a goose egg. a donut. a bagel. - so yeah. funding...

VROCKSTAR

12/9/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GNSS Add this to "martial law" list - financials r kind of ambiguous and consensus looks like a monkey and dart board situation e.g. the revenue growth. - but i'm starting a new watchlist called "martial law" includes a bunch of stuff that probably rips on some freak event. i typically build these lists ahead of time just so i...

VROCKSTAR

12/9/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:MDB Tough to own >$300. Gl but sidelines. - Over 10x sales for ~20% top line growth? profitability climbing, but not in the way a 25-30% grower would do. TL;DR here is you need a growth SPIKE to really re-rate this thing. - options chain pricing in quite a dramatic move. while i've gotten semi-smacked lately shorting, (though...

VROCKSTAR

12/9/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CXDO Interesting at $5 but prefer <$4.5 - pitched this one and find the biz def'n worthy of my watchlist (albeit not top of list). - net cash, small cash generator and growing this cash generation (about 7 mm FCF on a mid 120s mm EV is about a 5+% FCF yield - that works). - such that the 10% top line growth is met (and this is...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

- a name i've written most about - have traded it around, but remained pretty large (since the big eps pop i've taken some off the table to play some btc related stuff, some win's, some L's across the board) - but at this level ~50% retrace from pre-EPS to post-EPS peak, you're looking at $6 of upside/ vs $6 of downside. why this is important is that this is a...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

12/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PLTR Aping on the 2027 $60 calls. - stock acting like the united healthcare CEO got whacked by one of their drivers and we're all about to find out. too soon? - at 7 bn FCF generation on 143 bn EV... that's 5% yield, grows 15-20% a year (FCF gen). we're already in value territory, the question is what's the reason for this wicked...

VROCKSTAR

12/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:TMDX I'm back... buying sub $70 - check out last post when i opportunistically bot this thing - some Q's on last call ppl pointing out about "seasonality" being a bit sus. interesting. yeah CEO did act a bit defensive and i don't have context or know the chad - but growth remains solid, PE a bit high but for that growth (if just a...

VROCKSTAR

12/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BASE M&A tgt in '25 at this px... buy - really niche wrench in the tech toolbox product, don't love putting M&A into my investment thesis (b/c "great" if does, but it feels too "hopeful" to include these scenarios and i tend toward conservatism) - but realistically, 15% growth on the topline is inflation+ (the way i measure...

VROCKSTAR

12/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:TEAM Grotesque. Max short. - going to need a beer after all these vigilante shorts this year, but it's what keeps my greys poppin' and lockin' - 60x PE and >15x sales for maybe 20% growth and a ton of SBC on mediocre last Q's result (+50% since) is par for the casino. - but today's "we integrate with AWS" headline reminds me of...

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12/3/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:OKTA Long print ~$80, setup B+ - if one thing is clear, it's that beats and misses are ultra-super-duper-did-i-mention-ultra magnified these past Q's and especially this 3Q reporting season - the beats, however, are sending stuff ape'ing so if you can find decent setups, it probably pays to neck out a bit until the punch bowl...

VROCKSTAR

- by now it should be obvious that this isn't "normal" (hasn't been for over a decade, but esp in the last year). M2 turned positive and risk assets followed especially as labor mkt data started "allowing" fed to cut - but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

i'm short again. and opened it in size. let's see if it works out... again. got lucky last time. but this time, it seems more obvious. "we work with the government" pop.. lol "we integrate with AWS" mid day pop.. lol get your baby oil out. vigilante time. V PS - trading view removed my other posts b/c they were under the NYSE listing so you can find them there....

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11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:KVYO ~$40... Valuation too much vs. comps - new one on my radar and reports this wk so using as an opportunity to augment/ refresh my thinking on ad-tech related names - first there's no denying quality here, in a sense reminds me of NYSE:S in the cyber security space. expensive, but marginal winner. so i'm not going to fade this,...

VROCKSTAR

12/2/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NU Bot $12, load closer to $10 if/when - is one of the three stonks in latam that i've commented in the past is worth keeping a v close eye on b/c of the growth rates and tremendous product. the others are NASDAQ:MELI and NASDAQ:DLO (the latter of which worked out nicely and we made a good exit earlier this year from the lows,...

VROCKSTAR

12/1/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GAMB Buy <$15 but prefer near $11 - thanks to anon for flagging this one - cap at sub $500 mm and minimal debt great - growing mgns and cash flow generation, no stonk based comp issues to flag - awesome margins (GM and EBITDA) - supplier to key accounts e.g. NASDAQ:DKNG - growing well and sub 15x PE today seems reasonable - not...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

11/18/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BLDE LT buy under $3.2, going slow - have written extensively about this one in the past, so won't dive into details but here's the incremental - mgmt continues to deliver solid results, turned FCF +ve already and are on track to meet MT targets - it's in my portfolio sub $3.15 again for a 1.5% size (shares, not options - more on...

VROCKSTAR

11/23/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PDD Close to buying again... ~$100 - have traded this one around quite extensively, but it's always been a rental, because I'm never quite confident to own chinese stonks after getting the Brandon treatment on my Yandex shares (which eventually turned to NASDAQ:NBIS and i got to dump for btc) - the VIE structures in china...

VROCKSTAR

OTC:GDLC now remains the cheapest way to own BTC if you're cool w the closed end fund yes it's run, but so has BTC 15% discount, 12.5% for $BITW. so i've swapped my OTC:BITW back to OTC:GDLC mainly on the last pump. i oscillate between the two based on discount per this chart i've been publishing short the miners as a hedge, that's about all i can say... for now V