VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

5/2/24 - vrockstar - like the setup long here into print. 1) trends probably a 50/50 but 2) not a "discretionary" seller but more a platform for discretionary choice which is an interesting product in this environment esp wrt speech about 2H etc. 2) not really a burner much at all, and beyond healthy cash balance so no dilution/ raise/ sustainability q's about the...

VROCKSTAR

5/1/24 - vrockstar - taking a look again post eps 10% drop and can't find the reason to take beyond a trading position if say opens in the mid 150s. why? overhang from the 3Q result (-40%) on BETI remains a PTSD event/ still w/ wait and see, the 4Q result didn't bring much improvement and now 2Q guide is weakish. this isn't unique to the co, so not specifically a...

VROCKSTAR

5/1/24 - vrockstar - like the prints so far this year, great niche, good b2b unaffected by consumer issues all around but valuation not "obvious" outside of a beat which they should deliver on the MSD range top line. any miss or in line would probably yield a 10-15% correction where you can dip buy w/ more confidence which is my plan. otherwise sidelines on a good...

VROCKSTAR

4/30/24 - vrockstar - obviously expensive but the EPS growth allows to make up whatever multiple. one of few co's that is probably minimally 2 yrs away from whatever nvda is putting out and has capacity to absorb something similar (e.g. groq) or partner w/ someone else. think the narrative on semis remains strong/ bid and any beat here will be a rip and stick. any...

VROCKSTAR

4/30/24 - vrockstar - don't see how they "miss" per se but it's more a valuation equation for me. think guide should be bullish bc it's easy to sell upside here. probably better to just buy amd/ nvda though as any "miss" is hard to dip buy, any beat might be distribution event with low follow thru. i'm potentially buying a dip on a bad amd/ amzn print that sucks...

VROCKSTAR

4/30/24 - vrockstar - tape seems to like these non-ai disruptable names w/ px'ing power, 22x fwd EPS (and growing) seems "cheap" (not really but compared to everything else). good fcf generation. good box open potential. they sell legal drugs. net +ve result here esp seeing the stock float in a bad tape means it's haven.

VROCKSTAR

4/27/24 - outsized move for the stock on eps -17% seems too much. however, growth subdued for next 2 yrs doesn't help. even 8% implied fcf yield while juicy and sticky-ish base... is not exactly what the mkt wants to pay for this -ve growth i'm sensing - it's probably closer to 10% for this type of scale + net cash + sub 5x EV/revenue multiple names. downside here...

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - first time i come across this ticker (i look at a lot), wow. great opex flex. software-ish margins, not expensive on various multiples i look at vs. growth looks awesome. chart yes. am i missing anything frens, i think i'm just buying this print b/c i like everything i see including cash gen, captive industry that's bit less discretionary....

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - seems like we're a bit long in the tooth here right fam? 1% fcf yield lmfao, 30x PE, yes we can see thru what our lizards have coming in the next disaster which certainly deserves a premium. but zuck and aapl r ahead (way ahead i'd argue) in the next compute platform. not knocking cloud, installed b2b, games etc. but just look elsewhere ppl...

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - idk get this - liked/ traded it sub $10 to the long side... but good gawd the rip from last Q made zero sense to me. look at 4q vs. 4q gross profit gen vs. opex spent. going the wrong way. net cash fine, "gen's cash" but it's a lot of non-cash stock comp (and my rule is i only pay for this as cash if the stock is sustainably going higher)....

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - idk get this - liked/ traded it sub $10 to the long side... but good gawd the rip from last Q made zero sense to me. look at 4q vs. 4q gross profit gen vs. opex spent. going the wrong way. net cash fine, "gen's cash" but it's a lot of non-cash stock comp (and my rule is i only pay for this as cash if the stock is sustainably going higher)....

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - 2x sales, scaling on the opex line and 5 days to cover keeps me from wanting to short this esp after last quarter's result. but the setup looks more +ve than -ve here. the second order problem is a miss sense this into the abyss that's hard to dip buy and you're best to take losses - i don't like that sort of setup. so plan here is to chase a...

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - 2x sales, scaling on the opex line and 5 days to cover keeps me from wanting to short this esp after last quarter's result. but the setup looks more +ve than -ve here. the second order problem is a miss sense this into the abyss that's hard to dip buy and you're best to take losses - i don't like that sort of setup. so plan here is to chase a...

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - great growth, nothing fundamentally wrong here which is suicide to short in an everprintmonetaryjokeworld, but i'm defn not buying this print and could consider a short on an outsize pop here. 10x revenue is not the right multiple for sub 30-40% 2y cagr growth and with these semi-but-let's-be-real non-software mgns (I get it, they'll scale,...

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - well managed business, net cash helps in this global fiat debt chitshow, 20x PE not awful for scaled biz, employees churning like butter helps, ACN one way, TYL the other - not really even perfect comps by any sense, but think this would be a dip buy on a "miss" all else equal >10% down. tend to think this is a long into print given the sell...

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - net cash nice, 20 ish fwd a bit expensive for the lump discretionary nature here... but seems like a well managed business, just too expensive w/ so many other options in this tape ahead of a potential consumer "pause". i'd not be short this name w/ cash gen potential, buyback etc. but don't think it's a convincing long here and realistically...

VROCKSTAR

4/25/24 - vrockstar - not willing to outright ride long on evan's crackpipe stock, but tiktok ban, FB's #s +ve (and reaction mainly related to speech specific to zuck), last snap print was really a reset of expectations, options pricing in rich upside... so decided to sell some at the money C's and a few OTM C's (covered, lol), for 10% implied daily yield if i'm...

VROCKSTAR

4/23 - stupid expensive 60x pe and just a "better" consulting company but probably beats lazy estimates in a "good" tape and would be a good short upon 1) beat and 2) pop into the coming months. good luck longs... either use this as exit liquidity if you've done the work or realistically you should have rotated to something else by now. lol.