VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

8/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:VIPS sub $12.. things that go "hrm" - tough to own any chinese stonks, i get it. NYSE:BABA is arguably the cheapest biggest non-US moat on the planet and has a nice AI story too that is worth peanuts - i've owned russian assets when the USSA rendered them zeros. i get the risk we face here with election upon us - also understand...

VROCKSTAR

8/19/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NNDM Long into print @2.15 - net cash valuation of 270 mm or so (so yea, the company's valuation is basically negative) - the burn between 50 and 100 mm a year in cash. let's say that's 100 mm - among the 3D print companies, it's really the only one i've found that's even remotely ownable bc it's a. revenues aren't tiny b. in...

VROCKSTAR

- burns it's market valuation in cash every year. let that sink in. - space cadets are flying high with NASDAQ:ASTS (hats off, i'm still short but let's see) and NASDAQ:RKLB (also a reasonable play) - but with this one, you're buying someone else's Uranus - before u know it... your money gonna go Pluto... - i try to not opine on these things but just bc they...

VROCKSTAR

8/19/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PANW r/r ambiguous at $334, sidelines into print - i think among the cyber names this one is the bluest of chips (notably after NASDAQ:CRWD had it's "snafu" - though i think there's more here than meets the eye and i've written about it) - 3.5% cash gen (half of that is stock comp - but gets a pass b/c the company/ leadership...

VROCKSTAR

8/16/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:MED Is it worth a look at $18. weird - this one showed up on my radar again, i couldn't bear to pull the trigger in May at $22 and change - still a melting ice cube but sales misses are narrowing Q by Q - what really draws my attention is this thing is PILED with cash. the enterprise value of the business is $50 mn bucks....

VROCKSTAR

8/14/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT Top pick sub $40 - find it so tough to find stocks that check most nevermind all of these boxes A) beating earnings consistently and by a large margin B) growing at high (high) double digits C) tech solution providers and C.2) that are NOT being disrupted by AI, D) i like the mgmt and E) valuation is very reasonable, which...

VROCKSTAR

www.grayscale.com 36% discount to NAV bitwiseinvestments.com the 2x (AUM) larger comp is at a 23% discount to NAV i don't want to insult the current retail crop within GDLC, but to say, i'm reasonably sure the bitwise team is actually selling their (original flagship) product BITW and who knows if grayscale is doing the same. sells in these close end funds...

VROCKSTAR

- adding back today about 45% size (was 35% a week ago for perspective) - 35% discount to NAV and 90% of the assets are BTC and ETH (mostly BTC) - the way i xls it out, you get btc at 42k, eth at 1.6k, sol at 74, xrp at 17c and avax at 6 (that's what you're paying at sub $20 today) - can always go lower, but you're buying yourself a nice margin of safety here on...

VROCKSTAR

8/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NN grim reaper short @7.6. gl longs RIP. - i've written about it in the past as a "stay away" - co just reported a miss of 30% revenue on already laughable #s - thing trades in the hundreds of x's on revenue (i think it's like 140x 2025 revenue). if they were beating revenue i'd probably avoid it. also if it were a 100 or 200 or...

VROCKSTAR

8/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:LOAR Short at $75. 20x sales no way jose - round up 20x sales on today's move - nice results btw. i stayed out of the way bc often times you get these new IPOs that are set up to "crush" - nothing against this thing. seems like a nice business but i can't do 8 bn valuation on 400 mm of sales. - looking at funding shorts in this...

VROCKSTAR

8/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:WRBY Still no thanks at $13. maybe 10. - good brand - but moat is more brand related than product related (opine if you think differently) - stock in a tough discretionary environment. if u don't need a new pair... you can wait. this isn't toilet paper. - really dislike how much stock comp in this co's FCF calculation it's nearly...

VROCKSTAR

8/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PLTR short at $30.5... 25x sales no gracias - great company. stonk too stonky. fam i'll keep reiterating this - there's a differnce between company and stonk. - 25x sales. it's not growing 100% yoy. it's growing in the 20s CAGR. that's fantastic. but i can find a bunch of other stuff growing in the same range (that are also great...

VROCKSTAR

8/13/24 :: VROCKASTAR :: MYX:INTA Long into print $33 - 5x sales for >20% cagr growth - great software margins/ profitable flexing - negative: ALL of these co's seem to be indicating a weaker 3Q which has me probably keeping this size more of a sport (25 bps) than anything i'd go large/ size up. - i'd want to dip buy if the result is "horrendous" or the guide...

VROCKSTAR

8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:ONON long into print at $40 - expensive at nearly 40x '25 EPS even tho '25/'24 implied cons. growth is only single digits - playing w fire a bit - but the google trends are genuinely on fire and even tho deckers' Hoka's are crushing (also NYSE:DECK had good EPS), on chart looks pretty stellar too trends.google.com - 6 to 8 days...

VROCKSTAR

8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:HD Limited upside at $345. watching only - we've seen the housing starts linger - rate cuts probably need 3-6 mo to drive inflection on build capex - HD remains excellent biz, but at nearly 27x PE (when you adj. for net debt), and flat EPS that's a tough one for me to stomach. - feels like this is sticky valuation for the fact that...

VROCKSTAR

8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NPWR lol valuation. short at $8.5 - this is not the general risk tape where you want to be caught on the toilet when the toilet paper runs out. - 3 bn valuation. burns cash for as long as the eye can see. no earnings and don't "muh sales growth"... hoping for '26 and looking thru '25 is not really the brightest idea. -...

VROCKSTAR

8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BZFD i'm short this print at $2.22 - P's obviously, bc i know who i'm facing off against and this thing could easily double in my face. so limiting my downside here. weapon of choice is the 9/20 2P's. - as written about in my prior post, this thing is basically a failed media company. just because vivek got in at sub $1 (and...

VROCKSTAR

8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DLB Already buy $66 but want more - quick comment, hit a 'check in' target i set from a year and a half ago - results reflect the consumer/ macro not a company issue - stock trading at lows on it's equal-weighted SPY pair ("DLB/SPXEW") which is interesting but also gives me some ST caution - valuation starting to be compelling in...