VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

8/12/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:GPS Not on sale at $22, buy teens - great brand, turned it around, good product for "recession" - google trends and stonk seem to correlate well, clearly a lot of the benefits of results since 2023 have been priced in trends.google.com - consider 30% of the capital stack is debt (~12 bn enterprise value vs. 8 bn cap). so to get a...

VROCKSTAR

8/9/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PUBM Started position at $13.5 - ad solution with ~4% market share - bad environment, stock now tells that story/ sufficiently punished - cash of 165 mm (no debt) leaves this thing (after today's -30% move near ~$13.5/shr) at close to $300 mm valuation ex cash. - round down $80 mm annualized EBITDA... to $60 mm and you're at 5x...

VROCKSTAR

8/8/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CELH buying aggressively ~$38 pre mkt, downside limited - NASDAQ:CELH is the corona of the energy drink market. get in... beach. - BoA downgrades this thing at 52 week lows. now thinks it's worth $32 (from $60). thanks for the discount Jon. - celh has now become my largest position even acknowledging we have a giant gap staring...

VROCKSTAR

8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: COINEX:OREUSDT I guess i'm buying again? lol - this is insanely risky - i hazard to post any non-BTC related stuff (even BTC related stuff tbh, DM me best for this) - that being said, from where we bought in the mid $300s (check out post from May 14, 2024), we closed out half the trade for a 100% gain, let the profits run, then the thing...

VROCKSTAR

8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:BLDE Big into print ~2.8/shr - have written before that value <$3 and deep f'n value <2.5 - we have a setup where the stock clearly looks like it was whacked on small cap flows (if you watch any number of small caps you'll notice the same -30% move in the last weeks) - as a reminder these guys fly around organs (a better ambulance...

VROCKSTAR

8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SHOP not "obvious", but buying mid GETTEX:50S into EPS - best in class platform, "uber", "abnb", "amzn", etc... - not "cheap" at 50x EPS (pick your bogey) in an ailing consumer - but generates piles of cash (inflecting) and shy of 3% fcf yield this year but growing top line at 20% yoy is *way* better than cash - what still concerns...

VROCKSTAR

8/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SMCI Punting long print @ $600 - liquidity conditions generally look favorable for a day (maybe more?) but enough to punt on this beaten up sector on a name growing high 30's CAGR+ and trading 25x PE next year - think the "surprise" that there's a lot more demand for full stack data center will drive more upside toward the $800...

VROCKSTAR

8/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:SMWB Long consideration on EPS sub $6 - seems to earn a good >10% growth, not amazing but solid on top line - opex inflection already the case, continues to be the case. - if we extrapolate FCF it should become >10 mm a Q - but let's cut that in half $5 and multiple by 4 Q's and we're at 20 mm. On round up $500 mm capital stack...

VROCKSTAR

8/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:POWW Close enough to my $1.5 tgt - are we close enough to the $1.5/shr tgt that i spelled out in my last note? - even low balling cash gen at $25 mm for $150 mm (cash-adj) value is 16% fcf yield, pretty high - "election" years should be good for ammo right? - what am i missing here? is this worth a 50 bps position tmr if we don't...

VROCKSTAR

8/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:SONO Still tough to own > $10 - taking another look at some throw backs on my watchlist after some market carnage - love the product and brand but remember fam company is not equal to stock - what i struggle with most here is that their sales r flat this year and it's a one-big-quarter (holiday season) stock, and it's hard to a....

VROCKSTAR

8/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PLYA Dip buying if/does $7 - best in class all inclusive operator (properties, management) - over 5% fcf (to EV) but half capital stack debt - consumer probably delaying booking (so window probably doesn't look amazing) and in a seasonally slow period - mgmt typically conservative - also a dip buyer here. have been patient for some...

VROCKSTAR

8/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:UBER W/b buyer mid 50s in any other tape - high 20s PE on '25 #s not "value" but this thing is the definition of moat - high teens sales growth and 3% FCF yields beat anything sold at Papa Powell's Dog Shop - love the product, such a go to - still has some Elon-one-day-will-hurt-stonk - would own this EPS on any other occasion at...

VROCKSTAR

don't really anticipate doing these so often really. but so much has happened and i've been maxing out GDLC (as many of you know, then sizing it down), in and out of weird EPS stuff, semi's weren't really even in my portfolio prior, now they are. god knows what happens next. I like a cash buffer, but equally i had gotten pretty cash heavy the last week/s-ish as...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

- a lil atypical play for me - degens only - many of u have pinged me on AMEX:SOXL in the past. today is WHY i've been buying NASDAQ:NVDA , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:ASML , and a few others. i've notably kept away from many including the biggest POS NASDAQ:ARM which we can partially thank for today's move - so let's consider some lemonade with a dash of black...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

5/22/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NVDA - on many fronts the stock is objectively 'cheap' when considering their 1) lead 2) moat (this includes sofware/ cuda) and 3) growth rate and seemingly unending (for now) backlog. high 30s PE, not bad for one of a kind growing EPS 50% cagr for next few yrs, 20x sales? expensive but put it in cash FCF terms, 2% yield at the low...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

- check out some of my other posts for logic/ valuation etc. - it's not a screaming buy here at 47.75... but given i just took a bit off the table - i'm adding that back. so went from 1.25->2.5% today - will plan to add more lower - monetizing some of my (large) OTC:GDLC stake - as many of you know - into this instead of just cash. - seems like solar is the...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

7/31/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AVDX 25% off is extreme, starting small - i don't have time to dig into the weeds, which is mainly why i'm keeping this smaller for now (25 bps starter toe in will force me to do more work after hrs) - it's a NYSE:BILL comp which is why i pay attn (no position here either, but it's one of my favorite SMB names on short list),...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

6/12/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:CELH - this one seems to be topical bc of the potential energy drink ban in UK that could be determined by political wins in a month. while i don't think the stock should/will only move on this news, it's notable and also concerning that this is being sold on a day like today where risk is up. my sense is there's a rotation to...