VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

6/28/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT rebuilding position again <$47 encourage you to read the long thread i wrote when i took the position back in may around results. the tl;dr is ... in near $40, out near $60 bc had gone too far too fast. i'm coming back to this in a smaller size ~50 bps near the $47 line. i STILL believe this tape is going to be SUPER brutal...

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on this friday i want to explain what i mean by NYSE:NKE on it's AMEX:SPY pair (we refer to things a lot in "crypto" vs. it's CRYPTOCAP:BTC pair - to be clear i don't chit coin much, i'm essentially maxi, but we come back to that in time k?) in stonks, i think we can borrow something interesting from the "crypto" industry, which is looking at things on...

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6/13/24 - as written in a note prior to EPS, there's no getting around how expensive this is. even with $10 off the highs (from $40->$30 today) the stock still packs a 13x ev/ fwd sales multiple. is it worth paying that for 30% growth this year and 25% next where profitability remains strained and we've not yet reached true scale? here's the yes (followed by the...

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6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NKE Setup long into print but I'm on bench Quick comment on this softline bellwether. - Look at "NKE/SPY" on trading view e.g. look at Nike as compared to the S&P "comp". Puts you back at 2013 levels. In other words it's been a pretty bad "money" - recent result was weak/ consumer still yet to be cracking, and they'll really have...

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6/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ZM As written about just 3 weeks ago when they reported EPS, the setup was non-obvious and i remained on the sidelines. we've chopped all over the place but the factor gawds finally got the best of NASDAQ:ZM and basically everything else that's software in the last week and especially the last two sessions. I HAVE NO IDEA BUT...

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5/20/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:LULU - clearly there's something wrong on a day like today where mkt is ATH and moving higher and 23x next year PE LULU is getting crushed. this is a bad omen for EPS, or the expectations need to come down and the stock is incorporating this. the real conundrum is beyond a beat (if that's the case this RIPS), the stock is going to...

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6/27/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ACCD Probably a beat, street sleep? After the M&A that showed up last Q genuinely have to wonder if the street is sleeping on the revenue figure. This is now the second time i come to this one. don't think it checks my boxes to become a core position, only trading for now. Last q i was a bit skeptical i should be involved mainly...

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6/21/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:FIGS Interesting <$4.5, obvious mid $3s Another oscillator i've traded for some time. bought a small token 10 bps stake this AM to keep it on my pinkie toe in the pool watchlist (which is an upgrade from a watchlist lol bc theoretically there's *some* skin in the game). the way i think about this one is that the valuation is...

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6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NNE Low float meme stonk only Portable reactors gonna revolutionize the world. Maybe. But spending <$1 mm a year on R&D? Good luck. It's a meme stonk, just know that. Does it gap up 100% tmr? down 50%? the way these things trade, probably higher given the strength on a rough day. it's a beacon of fresh liquidity driving the low...

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5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:S - starting my position here at $17 after hours. hard to say what's buying mgn of safety here, but i'll make a few points: 1) growing 35-40%, same as industry leaders but spending way less 2) better tech, Tomer confident and humble communicating this; have heard it from those in industry as well. buy tech in enterprise, not...

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6/27/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:WBA Textbook ex. of why avoid leveraged stonks Not dunking on the stock or holders here. and not writing this for the record of benefit of myself (like all the other posts). anything today that's got extreme leverage w/ sticky high interest rates is probably going to be in the second or third tier of what gets bot when liquidity...

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6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PAYX Too many macro headaches involved getting out in front of some of these prints later this wk as i'm at the bitcoin conf in miami this week. any-who back to the reality of awful economic growth (the real numbers frens) businesses preferring cheap labor or AI labor to humans and... no rate cuts for some time (the next few...

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6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PRGS Looks enticing, but pass I'll keep this one short and sweet. Pass: - Growing >10% a year, *okay* but 100% of it is growth of SG&A, so the more selling they put in, the more they sell. it's not scaling - 3.7x ev to sales is here nor there. I can pay the same amt for NYSE:BILL and without the leverage in my capital stack...

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6/21/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:HIMS Prefer other names, reassess <$15 k? I'm going to keep the comment short bc this one is a sort of obvious "stay on the sidelines" to me. - stock has had a great bump since announcing they're selling cheap alts to the weight loss juice. cool. - great gross margins, but when you look at the SG&A (there's no R&D in this biz -...

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6/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:FDS Probably a beat but fear guide There's no denying the quality of the Factset product. The problem is, it faces a lot of AI-related competitors like other B2B and this is not eating the share price yet like other names. It's not to say they don't have a better niche, lock in etc. etc. but it's defn the "same" risk and again the...

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6/20/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:FDX Great biz but lacks juice You'll have to forgive me fam, i'm out in vegas this week and in Miami next. i keep on top of it all tho as u know. except for i mis typed FDS which reports tmr and i'm writing up as we speak... and typed in the wrong ticker - so that's why i'm writing this lol - 3.5% fcf yield. good. but for co...

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5/17/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:NICE - still wrapping my hands around the asset itself (so will re-engage in the coming weeks/ or next Q on a more nuanced view). however, the key question i'm asking are a few things 1) is it growing above *real* inflation which is probably DD, at least in the terminal? "yes" is the answer - 15% and confirmed by the recent print +...

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5/9/24 - vrockstar - the question for me here is more about "at what point would i buy it" - let's be honest guys it's not cheap. they have debt. they don't make much $, a lot of stock comp. RBLX on the mgn doesn't help the factor this wk. the expectation into print is defn low and guidance is all that matters - which is hard to bite on given all the other...