VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

6/10/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:YEXT - the issue here guys is the market is full stop avoiding this type of factor and probably for good reason. the stock is also reflecting it which means you better know what you're doing either holding this into print. no growth top line is a massive issue where you scale software or your die. betting on some whack management...

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6/10/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:MIND - defn not something i'd typically buy. tho i look at it all fam. earnings obsessed lol. this thing has all the makings of something we could defn put on our "would buy if oil starts to rip" bingo card. the financials continue to inch more positively. cash flow remains just inflecting - so it's hard to "really value" this thing....

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6/7/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:BRZE - a lot has happened since i wrote a private comment to myself before the previous results at the end of March. basically software is unownable from a factor perspective unless rule of 40 is really rule of 50 or 60... and you're scale... and mgmt can articulate why AI won't eat your PnL for lunch. nearly 6x for a 20-25% grower...

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6/7/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:PWFL - doing a friday look at IOT alternatives given my initial start stake in NYSE:IOT today (go read that) seeing if there's anything else to own. this one has a great story. fleet-matics i'll call it. nearly $300 mm in revenue this year is the mgmt goal so 2x sales - which is probably not the right metric - but a starting pt...

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6/6/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:IOT - > 15x sales for 30% growth is simply too much in this tape, need closer to 12x which is substantially lower. look fam, these guys are perpetual beat/ raise types. so there won't be as much a surprise if this happens. it's the $crwd/ NYSE:NET of the IOT space (he11 they even own the ticker lol). so we need to own this in the MT/LT...

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5/22/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:SNOW - >10x sales for 20% sales growth is a tough rubicon to cross with conviction in this mkt w/ many faster growers at better valuations. nevermind PE... at >100x, which is the inferior metric here mainly b/c the sales optic is so egregious. i'd counterpoint myself by saying 2% fcf yield looks good... but it's... all... stock......

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6/5/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:GWRE - a stock up on EPS print that marginally beat/ look ahead. 10x sales. subscale mid single digit growth. going to get murdered. great funding for some of my dip buys this morning. software rn is an impossible factor to own - if you do - you need funding. gl to the longs, nothing against this one in the MT/LT context, but ST for the...

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6/5/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:BASE - among NYSE:CXM , NYSE:SMAR and now this one reporting tn... they all basically suffer from the same factor problems (read those). the issue w base is that it's possibly even worse given the size, higher valuation, actual cash burn (despite dilution) and arguably even more "at risk" of AI-narrative-murda. the chart is defn in...

VROCKSTAR

6/5/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:SMAR - gawd it's so hard to buy 4x ev/sales even w/ high teens growth, inflecting opex leverage when you look at mid 30s PE, high dilution (stock comp issue/ not real cash generator)... and ALL THE COMPS GETTING REKT in this size/domain (biz optimization let's call it). charts just all match each other with slightly different variation...

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6/5/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:CXM - i like the inflecting opex leverage here, with gross profit up $25 mm in the last Q (on a YoY) basis and opex flat. this should continue and we'll still see mid teens growth for this smid cap. cash generation still fully supported by stock comp - which is undesirable but par for the smid tech complex. PE also less relevant here,...

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6/5/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:CHPT - 3 yrs of cash burn runway generously (probably more like 2), trends last 2 Q's have been particuarly bad, electric factor/ hype has defn taken a backseat in the last months and simply put there's a lot of dilution happening here too at the stock comp level. i'd expect a raise at some pt which probably holds the upside hostage and...

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6/5/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:NIO - just tough to justify 1-2 bn of burn even if co is net cash. sales trends not obvious and seem to have considerable competition esp from BYD (look at that chart!) and others esp in their low margin home market. the chart is death. probably will be volatile but as a trading stock only for now - hard to own profitable chinese tech...

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6/4/24 - interesting biz here that's sort of checking all the right narrative boxes esp cyber, but it's GM % seems more like consulting than scale-up tech and they're not growing in recent quarters enough to merit a super close look at 5% FCF yield. 10x PE is deceptive given net debt but cheap-ish. clearly not an industry consolidator (like NASDAQ:CRWD , ...

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6/4/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:SFIX - guys look - all the clothing names/ shoe brands have been doing well this EPS season but i'd not include NASDAQ:SFIX in this bucket b/c not a brand owner and quite frankly - the trends suck per the google trends link below (which is proved by the financials). could there be a quarter here or there that bucks the trend...

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6/4/24 - VIE:HPE - a more complicated dell. 14x adjusted (for capital stack) earnings looks cheap, but you've got to overcome a 2 yr trough - so unless you have a view that the entire street will change this view on a single quarter in a jobs week (as alluded to in my NASDAQ:CRWD post), i'd just let this pitch go by. all else equal, i'd expect a positive...

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6/4/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:CRWD - going to recycle a lot of the same logic i employed before i started publishing from late april. stock is in the same place. the issue really is a factor one since we've seen most of the other cyber and B2B report good #s and stocks struggle. even NASDAQ:ZS , one of my top picks good #s, good guide, half the multiple of ...

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6/4/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:LAKE - seems like a decent placeholder for cash, but that's just not my style - don't see a big pop potential like tech/discretionary which is where I do most of my work. but at $1.5 eps power next year, clean balance sheet and super low double digit PE (10-11x) growing earnings (in theory), generating cash enough to give you...

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6/3/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:GTLB - let's be clear 9x sales isn't cheap. but 35=40% sales growth on inflecting opex leverage looks very attractive to me. stock has defn seen the pullback in the last few days as a result of B2B getting factor bodyslammed. the low key way to play this is to buy a pullback (mind the gap at $36 which is defn in play given what we've...