VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:GCO - as hard as i try not to convince myself to short stuff and trust me THE BAR IS HIGH - this is a possible candidate. 1. brands are not A tier, this isn't crox, onon, birk, lulu etc. 2. chart is trash 3. capital stack is trash 65% of enterprise value is debt - toxic factor in rising rates 4. meager cash generation, a lot of it...

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5/30/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:COST - i get it guys we're in a recession and everyone has become the poors and costco is for good times and bad and especially in bad times. but 10% eps growth and 50x on 2025 EPS? GTFO. i'm not going to knock you if you own this - awesome play so far - but good lawd take some nacho off the table here. this isn't a...

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5/30/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ULTA - this looks overdone for what should be decent results - given all the shoe co's crox, onon, birk, fl... beauty elf and even clothing names anf getting love (even lulu finding a much needed bounce - as i commented on sub $300) at 15x PE and 5% fcf yield, the setup does look +ve. what concerns me at the margin is this google...

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5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ASAN - 3.7x sales for co growing sales ~10% pa (or that's the expectation) this year is too much esp for sub-scale software so this is a mega high risk thing to own especially since *all?* software is getting dumped - give me a handful of names where that's not the case - and you've accounted for all of them. so the low risk way of...

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5/30/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:RHI - doing a follow up comment here given the stock now at 52wk lows and was flagged to me by a friend to take a look. 1) my valuation comments vs. the 4/25/24 comment don't change much. you're looking at a situation where it's a matter of where bottom EPS is and what lift off is from there. $3 of EPS seems low to me this yr, but is...

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5/29/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:PATH - tough one here guys/ but i'm taking a small position here AH -30%. this is NOT an easy entry, so keeping it small for now. the 2Q revenue guide is defn a problem. could hold the stock hostage, and might be worth listening to the call to see if anything changes. stock *deserves* to be down a lot, 30% though? so let's do the math....

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5/29/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:AI - just don't think you can buy this with confidence anywhere near current levels given 1) decelerating growth (esp looking at the 2Y stack), 2) burns cash even considering massive stock comp (which isn't cash in a declining px) and worst perhaps of all is 3) when you look at gross profit YoY difference vs. opex spending (even take...

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5/29/24 - vrockstar - $asmc - just added to my energy watchlist b/c the growth here L12 months q by q has been pretty impressive. stock has reacted to a lot of this, however, obviously. so $500-$600 mm valuation on $150 of sales is 3.5-4x sales (b/c profitability still scaling), which a. for this cap and b. those non software margins is quite frankly too much to...

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ANF - heresy to dislike this valuation? i get it's had a renaissance. it's profitable. 5% yield that's good! 19x PE! good capital stack. it's still cheaper than NASDAQ:LULU without any of the baggage all else equal. the issue here, my friends, is this price point is becoming more and more problematic. NASDAQ:PDD 's temu just crushed...

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:CAVA - taking a look at google trends... clearly we've not hit peak cava so... the market has tended to love these stories in the last 6-12 mo where you can't even see the peak. so valuation be secondary - even if it's 10x sales. NASDAQ:WING is closer to 20x, right? investing all profits (so no free cash) for cava... into growth?...

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i sense this is one to either get rid of sooner than later if you own it and find a new spot. the px/ valuation at 16x and again the optics of HSD fcf yield look reasonable - but under the surface, these are more expensive than meets the eye on a pro-forma basis and the owners realize this b/c they've been selling the stock more vs. the index. gl to the holders....

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:APPS - don't think much changes from my prior (non-public) comment heading into the last print in Feb. the capital stack is basically the main problem here. massive short interest at 8 DTC keeps this think probably moving pretty dramatically one way or another. but given the size of the company and the impending AI disruption...

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5/28/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:OOMA - interesting setup w/ MSD growth, good product zip code, generates cash (but 200% of it is stock comp - in other words, it's not organic yet). like how 50% ish of the opex is R&D - that's great. valuation is *fine* at 16x PE, capital stack seems to not have a debt/and or stock dilution problem. the stock looks to be setting up...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:DOMO - setup is ripe for a short (which these days i can only justify w/ P's if it's small cap stuff like this). the reason is... they literally are everything you can't own in this tape 1) broken stock, not a meme 2) years of dwindling growth, zero this yr 3) don't make money, burn; and would be worse if adj. for stock comp - a...

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5/23/24 - NYSE:MED - hit my greedy "take a look" target today. so here i am *taking a look*. let's be 100% clear - this company is facing some totally chit trends, comping down 50% growth and who know where the bottom is. i'm taking a small (and i mean small) swing here for a few reasons, however 1) macro tape seems to be driving risk away from the most spec/...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:MLAB - looks like a trap w/o proper DD or insight on trends. 5% yield fine for growth, but 100%+ of it is stock comp on a sinking currency (the stock). if you take out R&D, the GP growth is simply a function of uptick in sales growth, no leverage here and increasing R&D budget too. this looks like a name run by PE that ultimately...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NASDAQ:ROST - a good play on affordability like NASDAQ:COST NYSE:BJ (which reported good #s in this AM) and then we even see semi-discretionary stuff that's still discretionary makeup ( NYSE:ELF ) doing fine. it's the pricey and let's wait category (or let's finance it category too) that are suffering the...

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5/23/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:DECK - expensive but not a short, at >30x PE, 5% fcf yield. great brands, esp play across the affordability spectrum. don't have the NASDAQ:LULU curse per se is the point. NASDAQ:CROX is good omen, NYSE:ONON too etc. i'd be tempted to go long this into the print, but i'm currently focused on a few other swings and this seems like...