VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

5/9/24 - vrockstar - i genuinely don't think there's a valuation we'll agree that's ownable toward where the stock is parked. 60c this year on 50x? $30 stock. "yes" but look at that EPS growth, it's 100% yoy... yes but it's 70c the following year and trust me it's probably not going to cagr 50%. if it does... pls comment below. 8x sales for mid teens to 20%...

VROCKSTAR

5/9/24 - vrockstar - burning a post to simply ask if 15x EPS for 10% growth is "good" in this tape for you to punt? the issue here is 5% fcf yield with 10% growth is better had in a number of better mgn B2B names, and all of these have gotten hacked hard this Q. also consider AKAM's performance since last Q - the reset simply puts us to the place we were heading...

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5/9/24 - vrockstar - HIGH RISK LONG alert there's no obvious way to value this, but i'm going to put it in the fundamental post camp b/c that's all I do. positioning seems WAY off here and that's the point. this is like 15-20 days to cover, there's no option gamma... just shorts that get destroyed if these guys post anything even reasonably "decent" ...

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5/9/24 - vrockstar - super weird one to write up i'll admit - but hang with me here, think this is an interesting risk reward on EPS print 1) seems like the right "fit" for bidenomics, co's getting liquidated, ppl losing biz's etc. and these guys r the specialists in this? interesting "benefactor" of the environment 2) growing 5-10% a year minimally, and...

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5/9/24 - vrockstar - b2b's are getting squashed (software generally), and i don't like the long setup into this print so if beats/ stock rips... you don't lose by not participating (beyond the oppty cost) that said, i LOVE the idea of dip buying here b/c of healthy growth profile, reasonable 5-6x sales (not excellent, but not to stay away from), the 10x PE needs...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - post market review here and running the #s. 1) this must be a HQ co bc the chart/ results seem to be quite consistent. cash generative, great, net cash, no need to raise etc. etc. good R&D budget, good zip code (clould aux). 2) nearly 30x PE is TOO expensive for 10% EPS growth implied and nearly 10x sales also (way) too rich for 10+% growth -...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - this is one i've long loved and wanted to size up in the right situation. the last print was a disaster, but probably not considering the consumer environment. the current px is defn already taking this into account. at 14x PE, net cash, high single digit FCF yields... objectively this is an OBVIOUS buy in a 9-12 mo context (even year-end...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - wow i'm not really a bear b/c the dollar denominator is a dumpster fire forever... but i'm writing again to warn that 6x sales for mediocre mgns (they should be MUCH better given it's a lot of UGC in this biz) and pretty poor cash generation requiring multi-year-legs of growth is simply not ownable in this tape. the stock since last print is...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - look guys i think the UX rocks, the 3% IRA carrot was genius and overall... this "is" a better way to do banking/ crypto/ trading. not going to short the stock, but a lot of this positive stuff is defn incorporated since last EPS where the stock ran nearly 100% and it's realistically "just" off it's highs. even if we assume 50c of EPS power,...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - burning a post for anyone reading this. 7x sales for no growth, high capital intensity industry w/ high rates, cash burn and comps trading rough (even industry leaders r failing to hold bid)... if you love it - perhaps sell into the print if you think they'll "beat". HOWEVER, be warned, too many names are failing to run EVEN WITH good prints...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - head scratcher here guys. there's literally no valuation even close to where it's trading where I'll need to paint the logic. sincerely, if you own this and want to debate in the comments - pls do. this implies such insane revenue growth and profitability in the fwd years that... well in '20 and '21... perhaps it could be a great meme. but...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - weird one to write about - but revenue trends are actually solid over a pretty multi-year period. a non-"consumer" affected med-tech that's flexing opex. really hard to value on the fly, but if i conservatively say the $50 mm revenue in 2-3 yr is broadly correct at a 3x multiple (it's pseudo-software GM's w good R&D budget), but underscaled...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - really a tough one to own b/c there are good cases to stay away (contract questions, issues in Cali) but they continue to beat, the conf call right now reflects great mgmt vision to grow the addressable pie, upgrading ARPUs (as lower contract sales in past roll over), mgn expansion, FCF growth +30% yoy. if you take the 1Q result and annualize...

VROCKSTAR

5/8/24 - vrockstar - would like to buy it, could be a trade to the mid/ high 60s fam, but likely won't stick and act as exit liquidity for guys needing to size manage. what's more likely if you saw other ecomm/ retail, lulu comes to mind, is a gamma drag thru the day all else equal, all pumps being sold. the math here is "expensive" we all know it. you know it, i...

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5/8/24 - vrockstar - would LOVE to own this in the $6s, do we get there today? "probably not". what's my math here - simple. name has debt, and despite cash gen we're not paying it down in any "one year+" context. so it really comes down to say FCF yield, which at current open levels is in the ~6% range. not high enough for a tough industry/ high financing...

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5/7/24 - vrockstar - one of these names where it's already 1) reached take off velocity and prints have been good 2) not a cash burner and 3) net cash balance important in this macro 4) pick a metric for valuation 40-50x ebitda probably not the right one given the 20-30% rev cagr depending on how bearish/ bullish you are 5) likely a name that has a bid given size,...

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5/7/24 - vrockstar - 8 bn + on a complicated capital stack - an obviously "distributed" IPO (you still hold the bag? why?) and 8x sales on lofty 20-25% cagr revenue numbers (we all know these will get revised downward - banks need to shine up the pump to sell the deal fam). frankly, burning one of my posts to warn you all that if you own this, it might be a good...

VROCKSTAR

5/7/24 - vrockstar - 2ish times sales, inflecting profitability, not a cash burner (by a large mgn), 20% cagr top line growth... this is defn a buy. HOWEVER, it's not a must own into this print, consider their customers that are thriving on the rates and bidenomics. i'd look to dip buy this ONLY after a print that's a pass but "not good enough". any beat that...