VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

5/7/24 - vrockstar - simply too expensive in this tape even for a beat. will need to smash for stock to go higher. i'll be shorting any pop/ regarless of the print. i'll save the space and not explain why it's a short/ and i'm not shorting - but i'd stay away at best and if you own it, consider trimming > 10x sales sub 2.5% fcf yield, more epensive on PE than mag...

VROCKSTAR

5/6/24 - vrockstar - speculative here, don't know name but think this is a good setup for a long - took a small punt AH at low $13s after seeing the decent print and guide up (most are signaling issue w/ 2Q guide... which in this environment means they continue to take share and in a good environment/ reversal they'll be crushing the ball). hard to size up the 4x...

VROCKSTAR

5/6/24 - vrockstar - hard to fade this sector winner. 15x sales is defn expensive esp if any miss/ guide lower. i do see potential for follow thru, however, on a beat so don't see the merit to a. shorting and/or b. selling any size into the print. i'm a v interested buyer here, would be looking for a guide to spook ppl a la other b2b names and target the low 100s...

VROCKSTAR

5/6/24 - vrockstar - losing a post here to simply alert my fam of ppl who read these that this is type of name that's getting killed on anything less than a stellar print. 10x sales for high single digit plus growth and decent but not awesome profitability (1-2% fcf yield) is going to probably get dumped on a beat/ up 5-10% and not stick. any miss sends this thing...

VROCKSTAR

5/6/24 - vrockstar - like the narrative here all around (ai-support) but w/ AMD's comments, rates holding back b2b spending... i could see more risk to longs here vs. shorts. so while i think the right way to look at this is '25 EPS, any re-rate to '24 here would pull that $2.7/shr down to perhaps 2.5$ and that's about 12-15% annualized cagr depending on how...

VROCKSTAR

5/6/24 - vrockstar - not gonna short this b/c i agree w the bulls on the "LT" here... but nearly 20x sales, pretty forecastable model and unlikely to "smash" raise limits my interest in a heady tape. keep in my any big upside probably gets distributed/ sold down (there's your short if so inclined/ possibly ex post). any miss or growth reset dumps this 20%...

VROCKSTAR

5/6/24 - vrockstar - punting long here. Spac's all look like trash, so for s/t that's trading like the rest 1) the lift to sustained bid is defn requiring a great catalyst - and this seems like a decent biz w/ potential benefits of a stay-at-home-things-r-too-expensive-eCONomy and 2) cash gen, not burner, good balance sheet/ clean, "growing" or at least that's the...

VROCKSTAR

5/2/24 - vrockstar - good print, decent guide (let's be honest, better execution than other B2B style software), valuation reasonable 5x sales w/ opex leverage and good SMB moat and maintaining >20% pa CAGR growth rates w/ a lot of runway. conservatively modeling cash in my prop model, seeing dramatic upside here is probably not likely until we see some sort of...

VROCKSTAR

5/2/24 - vrockstar - hard to not opine here. valuation is v reasonable compared to the TNX and other big liquid tech considering play on AI integration (tools), VR/AR (even if it's small doesn't matter at all... rn - it's relevant for longevity of growth), services will continue to grow in the mix. lots you can do here. they have so much cash they can only do one...

VROCKSTAR

5/2/24 - vrockstar - tough setup b/c the trends look mediocre at best (esp recent ones). long term compounder w/ awesome moat growth at 4x revenue and 2y fwd PE in the high 20s isn't "expensive" for this type of 30-40% cagr. however, any miss/ investment issues here will dramatically reset the # and the multiple... i'm definitely biased long here but would rather...

VROCKSTAR

5/2/24 - vrockstar - seems a bit rich at 8x sales for sub 10% growth. cash machine, won't have the "guide" problem (well as much as more obvious candidates per the product niche/ security cyber). that being said, high 30s PE just buys you a better aapl, msft, slightly more obvious see-through risk. i'd look to short an outsized pop here to the range highs of mid...

VROCKSTAR

5/2/24 - vrockstar - one of these awkward fundamental setups in a bid tape b/c it seems like outside a massive beat you won't see any sustained rip and follow thru here and instead 2Q guide is likely all else equal to reflect others so far reported (too many to even number). stock seems to have not believed this which is cool - i haven't really dug in yet on the...

VROCKSTAR

5/2/24 - vrockstar - like the setup long here into print. 1) trends probably a 50/50 but 2) not a "discretionary" seller but more a platform for discretionary choice which is an interesting product in this environment esp wrt speech about 2H etc. 2) not really a burner much at all, and beyond healthy cash balance so no dilution/ raise/ sustainability q's about the...

VROCKSTAR

5/1/24 - vrockstar - taking a look again post eps 10% drop and can't find the reason to take beyond a trading position if say opens in the mid 150s. why? overhang from the 3Q result (-40%) on BETI remains a PTSD event/ still w/ wait and see, the 4Q result didn't bring much improvement and now 2Q guide is weakish. this isn't unique to the co, so not specifically a...

VROCKSTAR

5/1/24 - vrockstar - like the prints so far this year, great niche, good b2b unaffected by consumer issues all around but valuation not "obvious" outside of a beat which they should deliver on the MSD range top line. any miss or in line would probably yield a 10-15% correction where you can dip buy w/ more confidence which is my plan. otherwise sidelines on a good...

VROCKSTAR

4/30/24 - vrockstar - obviously expensive but the EPS growth allows to make up whatever multiple. one of few co's that is probably minimally 2 yrs away from whatever nvda is putting out and has capacity to absorb something similar (e.g. groq) or partner w/ someone else. think the narrative on semis remains strong/ bid and any beat here will be a rip and stick. any...

VROCKSTAR

4/30/24 - vrockstar - don't see how they "miss" per se but it's more a valuation equation for me. think guide should be bullish bc it's easy to sell upside here. probably better to just buy amd/ nvda though as any "miss" is hard to dip buy, any beat might be distribution event with low follow thru. i'm potentially buying a dip on a bad amd/ amzn print that sucks...

VROCKSTAR

4/30/24 - vrockstar - tape seems to like these non-ai disruptable names w/ px'ing power, 22x fwd EPS (and growing) seems "cheap" (not really but compared to everything else). good fcf generation. good box open potential. they sell legal drugs. net +ve result here esp seeing the stock float in a bad tape means it's haven.