VROCKSTAR

VROCKSTAR

10/7/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:ELF Too cheap to ignore ~$102. Buy. - low 20s PE for mid 20s growth - AI will disrupt many categories, but makeup...? - cash generative. low (2% FCF) yield not "great" but growth is hard to ignore. also the price focused niche is great for the current environment. - solid brand - need to evaluate leadership (anyone have a view?) I'll...

VROCKSTAR

10/7/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:PEP Swing long into print - Keeping it small (tue AM EPS), just keeping the knife sharp - 20x NTM PE for a HSD EPS grower not "great" but this portfolio of brands and know Siete *tiny violin and salty tortilla-shaped tear* is a pretty good "LT" price www.fdiforum.net - the rub is stonk has been relatively flat for a while in an...

VROCKSTAR Updated 

7/26/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ASTS This is one of those situations guys where you take profits if you're long. Pat yourself on the back. Have a beer. And move on. This valuation doesn't even merit me walking thru the math. PS - I short using some P's for next week $17 expires. Again, it's a hedge to the rest of my long exposure. Maybe it continues to rip...

VROCKSTAR

back to rebalancing this puppy (my main trade) and taking a lil potato off the table. bout 30% cash in the portfolio entering the weekend. 30% cash, 20% bitw, 15% celh, 10% nxt, 10% gdlc, 5% myps, 3% blde and still massaging my FAFO P's in things like NYSE:SG , NYSE:FIGS (this is new this week), NYSE:CAVA , NYSE:PLTR , NASDAQ:WGMI , NASDAQ:BZFD , AMEX:KRE...

VROCKSTAR

I try to stick to longs generally for a few reasons - bc they can make much more money from a compounding situation - shorting in a print-money-make-all-turds-float-market is truly miserable - it takes 2x the effort to find shorts than longs and you have to babysit them With that being said, sometimes i can't help myself esp when it comes to offsetting my longs...

VROCKSTAR

zero change to thesis (so go read the other NASDAQ:MYPS post i did!) - throw off a ton of cash - weird micro cap, so it just trades like the wind *pfffff* - ceo legit - right niche free gamez in a bad consumer (don't trust the fake numbers, trust your eyes) - sized up to 5% near $1.51 today - ton of ammo in my cash rich book to get closer to 10% near low $1.40's...

VROCKSTAR

9/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ADBE Small swing here at $530 - quick comment here - still a co that has >3.5% cash yields likely to grow double digits - defn an at risk to AI situation (as are all software- frankly) - but the beat and only small revision to guide doesn't show me any material deficiencies - not the cheapest name at over 30x PE (still higher than...

VROCKSTAR

- the spread has narrowed nicely - going to about 65% gdlc (selling some down from 100%) and 35% bitw (from 0%) of my overall closed end crypto exposure (which as of today is about 40% of the total book) - typically as momentum starts to move in these funds i've noticed an overshoot on both sides. so to the extent gdlc starts to trade 5-10% above the bitw discount...

VROCKSTAR

9/10/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QLYS probably a buy $120 but want $100 - previous note set the tgt sub $125 and here we are taking another look after the patience paid off - but consistent w/ my NASDAQ:ALRM note, the if/then price logic needs to be followed up by "what happened since" and the answer is "a lot" - i think the MAIN issue already but increasingly...

VROCKSTAR

9/10/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:ALRM probably a buy, but at this stage need sub $50 - pre my public notes i opined that i'd require a lower PE multiple in the current environment... *maybe* 25x next year w/b okay. well, we're pretty much there. - but the importance of my keeping tabs on when/ how i make these assessments allows me to say "something's changed"...

VROCKSTAR

9/10/11 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:APLD businesses make $. it's a short lolz - losses for as long as the eye can see - gross margins are negative (lol need i say more) - speaking of need. needham think it's worth $11. if u rely on the wall street clowns for price targets, ngmi - so could it go to a million bucks a share? dude anything is possibly in this un reality...

VROCKSTAR

9/9/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PLTR finally i can size up short at $34 - have been looking for some obvious shorts to offset my long book - at 30x sales, look no further than the stonk where everyone loves it because the number has gone up but where nobody has a clue about how to explain 1 + 1 = 100 - see you on the other side... short in size. (thanks!) V9/9/24...

VROCKSTAR

9/6/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PL Interested at $1.77, but weird - 250 mm in enterprise value (~500 mm cap and 250 mm in net debt) for sales that are still growing low teens, they're seeing opex inflection (gross profits growing and opex declining) - like the "space" component of it. maybe i'm coming late to the space lasers game *ahem* $ASTS... but this one...

VROCKSTAR

9/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AVGO long print at $155 - 7/10 idea. so for me that's small position - 30x PE on name that's growing 20's: reasonable - my fourth tier name after NYSE:TSM > NASDAQ:NVDA > NASDAQ:ASML > NASDAQ:AVGO - i literally own NO semi's rn outside of some AMEX:SOXL C's that are more managing exposure, book, length etc, and you'll...

VROCKSTAR

9/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:GDLC too close for missiles... 50% position. - i've been 30-40% size, tip toe stuff. as some of you have deduced, i am deep in the weeds on how this industry works. not the TA bs. the under pinnings. and if i had to distill the problem (and continues to be a problem) with bitcoin in one sentence it's this: hashprice is hitting all...

VROCKSTAR

9/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CELH Kim K time... baack it up $33 - you guys know my thoughts here - apparently mgmt ain't best communicators and were signaling some slow down in next Q (guess what... the stock already was suggesting this!) - weird tape, so i think there's some degrossing here by funds that just can't afford to take multiple (price) risk for a...

VROCKSTAR

9/3/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NXT Topping off at $37 - not much has changed in terms of my fundamental view since my last post sub $40 on aug 14th where i made this top pick - this risk off today seems like a factor of nvda/ semi's driving degrossing across the board - have written extensively about getting cashy. if you're in a position where you were fully...

VROCKSTAR

9/3/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:PD 5 bps on C's. R/R justifies. - great mgn, growing (albeit MSD best), seems to be an interesting position in mkt of hardware-software-IOT-stuffs - low 3's EV/sales seems like par for the low growth stuff these days - cathie-owned keeps me lol'ing why i mess with her bags - but short interest is sky high. today's -4% move is...