ValuePig

03:14

ValuePig

with apple, google, and amazon reporting thursday, the market may have been looking for a reason to take profits anyway. But overnight futures were down and possibly these Hong Trade Deficit Number soured the recent bullish mood. Add to all that the issue of the US debt ceiling, investors probably cant wait to reduce risk and look for a new re entry.

39:31

ValuePig

weekend review of big picture indicators

04:16

ValuePig

" are you a fundamental investor or a technical chart person". That cant be all there is to know can it? Ive bean trying to make up a fun and easy to remember acronym for describing multiple kinds of analysis for investing. I came up with FATSO. F Fed A Accounting Fundamental T Technical S Social O Options One of the things that bugs me about...

02:47

ValuePig

SP500 stocks are at key 200 level and we are waiting to see which way the crowd takes us next. Bulls say we soft landed and economy is still strong. Bears say we have yet to feel the full effect of the tightening and higher costs. I lean bearish and believe the full effect of rates will take time to hit. In 2005/6 when housing was booming and rates were...

ValuePig

From the perspective of a metals bull, Ive contemplated this myself a lot about metals. If gold and silver do extremely well and become extremely valuable, wont I need an exit or a trading partner. Who will pay me for my metals when silver goes moon? Dont I need a financialized world with easy money to for my silver "number go up"? See, I wonder this about...

ValuePig Updated 

NYSE seems to have had bad open liquidity issues. apparently large algo may have tried to sell at the open. from twitter: @ConsensusGurus "The largest dislocations from this morning's NYSE Flash Crash 2.0 - Multiple $100BN+ swings." @MFHoz The NYSE was hit by a "technical glitch" today, causing a trading halt for some of the most well-known global companies....

14:11

ValuePig

"Which one is the better buy for growth" was the question asked of me. I used chat gpt to help. then I ran fundamental, technical, and some macro questions to try to decide. summary: 2023 may be murky, but both will do well in 2024 and beyond.

09:10

ValuePig

Making money even when Im wrong, only in options world is that a thing. Non directional trades try to capture premium from both bull and bear sides be on a range or sideways trend. Here I discuss managing non directional trades as time passes and future price moves reveal themselves. Eventually, this non directional trade became directional. But thats my...

10:56

ValuePig

"You can't handle the truth". Except in this case, you cant handle the compounding. Compounding is so difficult for me to understand that I have to model it out for my brain to see it. Ive also lived it for decades now to believe it. If you dont know ahead of time what to look for, you wont know what to do when these generational wealth opportunities stare you...

10:41

ValuePig

Bollinger bands are not prediction machines. They are more like the gutters at the bowling alley. They are math based and rear view mirrors of what has happened in the past. They are customizable to your settings. I like to use them as a quick reference to tell me what is normal price action in the past. I would never use them alone. Combing valuation of the...

ValuePig

Buy high, sell never, stonks always go up. right? Either everyone has sold and no one needs put options, or could there be a crowded bus is short puts and covered calls as an asset class? Did so many years of low rates push everyone into becoming put sellers and covered call players? lots of options chains are showing very little put skew, as in very little...

ValuePig

what recession? what inflation? what rising discount rates? "Stonks always go up". "What me worry?" Just because stocks have come down in nominal price, it doesn't mean all these things are priced in. Buying low means buying below historical median PE and having healthy growth prospects. Buying low could also mean paying median PE with following years having...

04:46

ValuePig

Rare to see the dow index be the leader on the downside. Sp500 at 200 day moving average , again. Vix relatively low for the range in last year. percentage of stock above 200 and 50 day moving averages also both at top of the relative range for year. price discovery at work!

ValuePig

do we really need people to make more income for the stock market to go up? SPX SPY

ValuePig

Looking to work on a model for real estate cycles. Using median home prices divided by median income. IYR REZ XHB

ValuePig

Bulls take a position, get trapped; bears jump in and get trapped as well. A coil. Stops are placed. As they should. If the coil breaks out, half the crowd will quickly be wrong and bail. The market will eventually pick a way, discover price. Up down, cant do sideways forever. Crypto is rising, cpi is slowing. gasoline is cheaper. Cnn sentiment index is at...

17:17

ValuePig

When in doubt, choose positive carry. Dividend paying companies that are lagging. Good and bad. Good because they are priced with less optimism. Bad because the price my correctly reelect to opportunity going going forward. Either way, I like looking at dogs of the dow and dogs of the sp500 to do research. Ive found many gems that way, even if I choose not...

ValuePig

Apple is the last general standing. Can they really be immune to a slow down....forever?