ValuePig

09:55

ValuePig

Conceptual view of how to trade non directional or semi directionally using strangles and capped strangles, also known as Jade Lizard option spreads. Non directional option trades attempt to benefit from sideways markets or markets where options are are pricing more implied movement than is realized in the underlying asset. Combing a vertical on top with a...

06:16

ValuePig

Where is fair value and where is cheap? Price and value are not the same. Price is snapshot of opinion while value is a moving story that changes over time. PE price to earnings is how we gauge value, at least one of the main ways. I like to think of PE in terms of years. How many years of earnings am I paying in advance for this underlying business?. It...

15:16

ValuePig

lets look at 150 years of stock prices and see how valuation with inflation played out, and apply the "rule of 20" as a guide. The rule of 20 is a benchmark regression that essential says when PEs and cpi inflation are added together they should be under 20 for stocks to be attractive historically. SPX DJI QQQ NASDAQ:NDX GOLD

08:47

ValuePig

When the growth momentum traders give up on stock, its the value buyers who step in to support a stock. Problem with that is that both groups have widely different opinions on what things are worth. AAPL QQQ IWF TSLA RUT

10:01

ValuePig

Behavioral Finance explores the concept of why we are wired to make the same mistakes over and over as a species. Recently, I started reading a book called "Popular" by Mitch Prinstein , where he discusses that its in our DNA to helps us survive. We have done better by doing popular things in nature. When we go with the flow of the group and hunt together and...

13:21

ValuePig

Educational purposes only: if the bear market continues, one tool Im keeping available is bear vertical spreads. I dont want to go straight short the market, and buying high valuation is a no for me. So bear call spread might be worth a shot while waiting for bullish opportunities.

20:00

ValuePig

If you only have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Dont be that guy. have many tools to choose from to trade different scenarios and opportunities.

04:58

ValuePig

Stock indices are mostly flat today but the shiny white metal rockets up 5% plus today? what gives? is the BOJ raising rates to 50bps from 25bps, or is it the dollar weakness that is making silver shine?

10:50

ValuePig

Momentum buyers bring the stocks up to the moon, and the value buyer wait for the bubble to burst to pick up the pieces. the gap in between those 2 groups is the nasty part. There will be a crowd of unhappy trapped longs for many quarters and sometimes years until TSLA grows into its prices and puts up more growth to entice the value buyers.

41:32

ValuePig

how rates affect stocks, options, cypto, real estate

168:16

ValuePig

wow is the market in trouble?

02:54

ValuePig

Its not a good sign when the dow is getting bid up more than the growth sectors. Could be implying investors and institutions DIA who have to buy stocks are preferring blue chip dividend payers because they dont see growth in the near term. QQQ AAPL

45:38

ValuePig

whats the matter with tesla.

09:49

ValuePig

Commodities are hard assets and are trustless. The geo political climate has made commerce more difficult. Russia conflict, China supply issues, USA raising the cost of funding, the world is de-globalizing at the moment. Silver is tangible, credit is a promise that requires trust. As credit and trust are stalling temporarily, businesses will find it difficult to grow.

06:29

ValuePig

stock market is pricing in close to 20 PE currently which is roughly a 5% earnings yield, while bonds are paying close to that. next years expectations are still that we see a rise of as much as 10% higher earnings. If we instead slow down earnings growth, the market may be too expensive. SPX SPY IWF QQQ DIA

15:57

ValuePig

investing in stocks works out better when you take the time to understand what you own and what the intrinsic value over time should be.

37:59

ValuePig

live look at the market action including the apple news on lower production.