ValuePig

ValuePig

Its taken a long time, but silver has finally shown life toward the upside. Bullish moves in silver have taken 8-10 years in the past to fully play out. If 2020 marks the beginning of the bullish move, then this move could last until 2030. Bullish head and shoulders pattern could target silver to the mid 30s level. If silver shows continued strength, then...

ValuePig Updated 

Correlation for risk on assets will mean that if bitcoin keeps selling, its likely that the rest of tech could see profit taking. Fed rate Wednesday is expected to be no change in rates, but commentary could be a catalyst. Most indices are at or near breaking the 20 period moving average. Bitcoin is now below the 20 daily moving average, an indication of...

ValuePig

Nvidia currently trading at 36 times sales and pricing in all the forward growth in earnings analysts can see. Many cheap stocks trade at 1-2 x sales, normal price to sales for growth stocks might be 5-10x sales. But 36 x times has a huge built in growth premium which makes holding these growth names risky. Its just like a premium on precious metals at the coin...

ValuePig

double top pattern in play after IWM and RUT failed to breakout higher with the rest of the large cap indices. patterns alone can be deceiving, but fundamental risks support this double top thesis. banks risks, higher costs from supply chain constrains and or inflationary costs in play. Higher rates may be finally hitting consumers and businesses as an extra...

ValuePig Updated 

See my work of math art. I plot estimates of value over time. If you can visualize, it helps with understanding. Investors first must understand 3 things: does it make money now? will it make more money later? how is the company funded? Avoid money losers. Avoid companies that cant scale or grow. Avoid balance sheets that are weak or rotted with debt.

ValuePig

The growth premium on Tesla ran the stock up ahead of the fair value. The enthusiasm from 2021 was too much for the business value. However, the turbulence and slowing sales seen now will bring opportunity. 400-500 as a 5 year price is fair given the growth rate on earnings per share. So the lower the price falls, the better for investors looking to buy at a...

ValuePig

Gold is slow to move over time and hits its targets. The current move has been trying to break out for 3 ish years now. An extension of the current range of 1600-2050 points to a chance of 2500 as a target. And after than, if gold keeps rising, the decade range extension points at a shot at 3000. These numbers are hypothetical targets. When making new highs,...

ValuePig

spx/gold is a way to measure the value of stocks compared to real commodity metal instead of printable dollars. Gold is a "safe haven" for many reasons including that once its in your hand you own it and no one is your counterparty. Dollars depend on the federal reserve and the supply of dollars circulating. When you hold gold, you hold a real commodity that has...

ValuePig Updated 

after todays fed commentary, and this weeks earnings disappointments of the likes of Google, Apple and Microsoft, is it time vix to come back? NYCB made headlines as well by cutting the dividend and shoring up capital for potential losses. Vix this low is just eerie and concerning. Trade Idea would be bear spreads in indices, easier than trading vix directly.

ValuePig

Deep value means cheap and cheap can lead to opportunity. De risked or beat up is why we consider cheap stocks that are already depressed, the financial storm has already hit the stock price. Sometimes stocks get so beat up its unreasonable and doesn't make sense. Jaresh Holdings (JRSH) might fit in this category. Its trading below tangible book value and...

ValuePig

Google earnings revealed some disappointment in search ad revenue, causing some selling in shares. The market is looking for an excuse to sell and take profits, this could be it. Apple, Google, and Microsoft have performed poorly this week and are the largest stocks in the large cap indices. These are the leaders. The Generals. Could they be signaling slower...

ValuePig

While we still dont know the future of China and all its risks, these bargain stocks keep tempting us investors who follow valuations. IQ (iqiyi) is a online video streamer subscription model and also offers a live streaming platform in china. Used to be a part of Baidu, but is no publicly traded on its own. "iQIYI is currently one of the largest online video...

ValuePig

Stock prices alone dont tell the entire story. stock prices just represent the equity portion of ownership. Debt holders are also a form of owners who can collect at liquidation before shareholders in the worst case scenario. The opposite of debt liabilities is excess cash on the balance sheet. While debt would make a balance sheet look worse, cash does the...

ValuePig

CME housing index futures track real estate country wide and in metro areas. Real estate is a large portion of the economy and these futures are an easy way to keep an eye on the market. Could these indexes be topping out and consolidating? It already looks like San Francisco ( chart on the right side) could already be weaker than the rest of country in relative...

ValuePig

adding together the indices to create this index combo chart of naz spx and russell to get a nice big picture view. can the economy support high growth to justify this implied stock growth premium? momentum in indicators could be waning.

ValuePig

Tangible book value is the total of all physical assets minus liabilities. Its useful as a potential support level because this value is shows whats on the accounting books and implies what the liquidation value of a company might be if all things go sour. Its not a perfect value for liquidation because the market price of assets may actually vary from what the...

ValuePig

Chinese stock prices are pricing stocks as if both depression and war are on the horizon or currently happening. US stocks are pricing multi year growth and safety with low volatility. How can this be? China was only recently the manufacturing growth engine of the world, hand in hand with the financial and consumer support of Americans. Is this no longer the...

ValuePig

Rusell 2000 maybe leading the rest of the market to the downside. Russell has exposure to financial and energy, more so than nasdaq and large cap sp500. MMFI- is the percentage of stocks over the 50 day moving average. Useful in indicating how broadly bullish or bearish the market is, how the crowd is leaning in sentiment. VIX- is volatility index which...