ValuePig

01:57

ValuePig Updated 

Biden approved artic willow, banks need bail outs. is that a booming economy and booming picture for gasoline and diesel?

ValuePig

make math great again! DJI dow in this chart failed to break out higher and now looking for fair value amid panic. Credit Suisse, back in headlines today, banks getting balance sheet help, gold threatening higher. Im sure there are many baby boomers who need their retirement that strong considering taking profits and taking 4-5% this month. 5% on bonds is...

02:52

ValuePig Updated 

Dr Copper has a PHD in economics. narratives can be wrong, be price action is closer to truth. Lots of stories about no landings and china re opening. But price action is saying something else.

08:22

ValuePig Updated 

Buy low and sell high, simple as that right? I wish it was. Charts alone dont show the whole picture. Rivian has a math problem. They are a sales grower, but they burn cash until they dont. They are burning 1.5 ish billion a quarter and have 8 billion ish left from IPO. Price to tangible book is now below 1.00 showing investor losing faith.

ValuePig Updated 

Remember when vix was high? all the puts that could be sold? ah yea those were the days. Now the premium available doesnt seem safe. Gotta stay busy, gotta stay engaged. Prices on equities are up. fear is low. junk bonds are up. bitcorn is up. good times good times. Now AI is the new thing, and next future bubble. cant wait. I miss you vix. Call me. - a...

ValuePig Updated 

dollar rising, bond yields rising, oil and gas week, vix green thursday. is a turn in the works? Markets dont bottom on fridays. And why risk it over the 3 day holiday weekend (presidents day ) feb 20. TVC:VIX

ValuePig Updated 

price action indicates pressure to the downside. with banks getting bailed as consequence of rates, it doesnt exactly say "booming" economy, does it. All of these recent days are inside days. so presuming oil is bearish is just an opinion until it breaksout either way. but it sure looks like pressure will be to the downside. Heating oil, gasoline, and nat gas...

10:02

ValuePig

XLF financials, Stocks to GDP and stocks to gold, all tell the story. Our debt based system is bottlenecked. More money is 'needed'.

05:30

ValuePig

the market only goes 2 ways, up and down, and yet it can still be difficult to see through the noise. I used to just look at charts, and trade off of the pictures. boy was I a fool. turns out stocks are businesses. if you knew that, you should have told me sooner :D valuation changed my life. on dark days like today, the market is falling and its feels...

03:52

ValuePig Updated 

banks are the engine of the debt system economy. silver gate is done. FDIC had to kick in to protect depositors. XLF shows selling, will this lead sp500?

05:41

ValuePig

Can you smell what the market is cooking? mmmm Reward based behavior is term I learned this year for a concept Ive been studying for many years. Behavioral finance. The markets are wild because people are wild. we get too greedy, then reality shifts. then we panic. then it shifts. and that panic was a fire sale. rinse and repeat. because math is hard and...

05:11

ValuePig

bull trades when over sold, bear trades when overbought, and tidy up the house when in the middles. when you know you dont have edge, trade small and clean up. wait for you setup scenario. dont be in a rush to lose money the market will always take your money, dont rush it. wait for you sweet spot for better reward to risk. audio book link if you want:...

ValuePig Updated 

DIA has been stuck in channel and will eventually pick a side. rates rising, jpowell speaking, will treasuries pull assets form dollar sensitive dow?

ValuePig

does it get cleaner than this? thank you silver gate trend is higher highs and higher lows. all a technical pattern does is observe change.

ValuePig

as rates keep rising, that risk free rate from the treasury is making international income investors salivate. 5% plus is very competitive against he sp500 earnings yield and very close the to expected return on stocks of 7-10%. and remember a fixed income return is far safer than the expected potential volatility of stocks. mechanical traders like the Turtle...

ValuePig

near 1x sales on anything gets me interested. the money bleeading is slowing down. share count still rising a little. close to break even. has a positive tangible book. 3.8 billion in cash and equivalents. ill start to nibble and watch. small size small risk. tiny position. will see how market plays out month by month. looking for 20% growers to buy...

ValuePig

inside moves vs outside moves. just wait for the break out either way. its in the box, the box of indecision. churn churn churn. the bulls place their votes. the bears place their votes. the crowd will decide whats it worth when they are ready to overwhelm one side. its not up to you or me. thinking wont help. price discovery will prevail.

ValuePig

JayPow spookes market today at congress hearing, speaking on more potential rate cuts and mentioning that higher rates havent even hit full effect yet. testing channel and support. we shall see.