Varmushu

Varmushu

No two cycles have ever been exactly the same and it remains to be seen if that will ever happen. Bitcoin has thus far demonstrated a certain amount of cyclicity and predictable behavior on a 4-year time scale that has been widely studied and written about. Given BTC's overall influence on the asset class, we'll make the assumption in this idea that ADA can also...

Varmushu

As Mr. Cowen puts it: "Price does not follow narrative, narrative follows price". With this in mind let's start by asking two questions: 1) What drove ADA in the prior cycle? 2) What is driving ADA this cycle and are there similarities between 2020/2021 and now? -Is it the Presidential Election Cycle Theory? That every 4 years, like clockwork, BTC goes...

Varmushu Updated 

Next BTC halving is a ways off. Inflation is high and going higher. Divestment from crypto funds / stock markets. Geopolitical uncertainty + high oil prices. Etc, etc. All bad news for short term ADA price action. ADA had ~130-140 accumulation weeks on the macro scale before going parabolic. The ADA of 2022 is not the ADA of 2018 and it's notoriously slow, yet...

Varmushu

History doesn't have to repeat itself and ADA's limited trading history is only so much to base its future price range off of. IF, and read the IF again, history does repeat itself; ADA has a long accumulation phase in front of it. At least another 12 months before a real and lasting bull market STARTS. Another 6-12 months after that before the next peak. ~~ The...

Varmushu

BTC has historically (at least in the last three instances of 2012, 2016, and 2020) initiated large moves within a few weeks before or after a US presidential election (the start of November from ). Who knows why. It also tends to lose about 80% of it's value following the post presidential high...again, who knows why. Bitcoin is most likely NOT going to have...

Varmushu

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence and market research. I am not responsible for any gains or losses you may or may not have. ~~ From the logarithmic/big picture perspective, ADA is setting up a nice cup and handle. At the time of this publishing it's up 655% (Wow!) for the year. Is an imminent move to $5.00 likely? Almost certainly not. Is...