As you can see on the chart, ETHUSD has been making new highs but on increasing weakness. Volume has been decline throughout the final stages of this push up. MACD predictably showing negative divergences as a result. Price currently moving within a well defined channel with the lower trend line showing a lot of touches. I would expect this to reverse down very...
BCH is forming a base on the multi month channel shown in the chart above and the BTC chain seems to be getting spammed with 480+ sat/byte transactions. Combined with the renewed upward movement in BTC, I have a feeling that BCH is going to get pumped to 6000+ shortly.
I think this chart is as clear as can be. We have been in an EXTREMELY well defined channel for all of 2017. 5 near perfect hits of the top trend line and a very clear EW impulse pattern. If a lot of people consider Bitcoin to be a commodity (not that I agree), the 5th wave being the longest has a lot of historical precedent. Add to this, the gentle downtrend...
Watching to see if a head and shoulders pattern plays out on the 30 min. A jump up to ~4200 would also hit the 61.8% retracement of this recent down move. Was short from ~4300 to ~3900. No position for now.
Short term expectation for BTCUSD on Finex. Expecting a drop from the previous high or 1 last re-test of the long term trend line. Watching support lines after.
Giving a closer look on my earlier LTCUSD update. I am going to call the wave 4 complete based on the near perfect bounces off the hourly trend line and the Ichi cloud bottom lines. This is gonna shoot up explosively soon.
BTC 1h is showing some crazy strong divergences and this move is echoing the last long term move up from Jan - Mar 2017. I am expecting the same sort of volatility spike that happened Feb 6-8 and a fast down move that could touch the 200 DMA at 1160-1180 (on Finex) Longs closed. Very small short, if I do.
Probably silly to guess on such a short time frame but I am hoping something of this shape plays out based on the form and speed of the prior movements and the way the Ichi Clouds and MACD have been 'interacting' with those movements. Also, looking at Bitfinex cold storage wallet balances. Seems to have a temporary correlation to price.
Figured I would detail out what I was currently trading. Expecting a near term top, quick 4 wave. and explosive 5th wave. 4 could get tricky and be a very long sideward movement but I highly doubt that. Stop on any convincing break of the horizontal line around 12.70
Given that my breakout scenario from the last chart (to the end of May, linked below) was fulfilled, i felt it necessary to update it for the shorter time frame. The shorter time frames are showing quite a few reasons for concern - negative divergences on RSI and MACD. Three Drives Pattern that I would like to shoutout to @bagofXMR 's chart for detailing...
Noticed that the 2h time frame on ETHUSD seems to be giving more reliable signals so switching to it for now. MACD showing positive divergences so watching that closely. I think we continue to walk these bands lower followed by a W reversal on the next leg down. Ideally, I would like to see the bounce of this coming low to not break the mid-line on the Bbands...
Breaks of the 1D Ichi cloud for BTCUSD have generally lead to long term moves, as have bounces off their support. Next few hours will be key, if the Ichi cloud break holds to the next daily candle, I'd imagine we go to ~1200 without any problem. Key after is whether we want to shoot through to new highs or let the MACD reload, let the Bbands tighten, fake some...
MACD negative divergences adding to the other signals on chart.
Less of an idea and more of a 'wish'. A gentle move down to bottom of the Ichi cloud around 1120 and then a strong move up would - Create positive MACD divergences Create a W bottom on Bbands and result in the associated move up Cause a base line crossover on the Ichi while maintaining the bull trend indicating a continuation. It would be so pretty!
I guess ill publish it officially - watching for a 'sell the news' drop in the next few hours. Potential quick scalping short, followed by a long reload ~7s