Vixtine

Vixtine

It's known that credit spreads under 4 indicate a low risk on type market. (The black dotted line on the above chart indicates 4 so you can clearly see above/below) You can then use the RSI index to gauge whether or not the market might see a "change" in sentiment. A declining RSI means bull mode while a rising RSI means bear mode (could be just a market...

Vixtine

The crossing of the 100 SMA ABOVE the 200 SMA on the monthly 10 year yield is inevitable...it will cross shortly no matter what rates do from here on out...even if they declined to 2% tomorrow. What does this mean...IMO it means longer term lending rates will remain higher than people/corporations are used to seeing over the last 20 years. The prices we are...

Vixtine

I was looking over some monthly charts today (in candlestick format) and this one stood out to me on the monthly as a possible topping pattern...a monthly island reversal. On the 1st trading day in June 2024 SMH gapped up but then on the first trading day in August 2024 it gapped down creating a visual island reversal look. Technically speaking I think Island...

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It's hard not to look at this monthly chart of Value (VTV) vs. Growth (VUG) and not see a possible LT double bottom in the works. There is no doubt growth stocks have been the winner for a very long time; certainly over the last 25-30 years and perhaps even more one might argue. At this point it seems like value is dead OR will it stage a huge comeback? Because...

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I still have a hard time believing the US will ultimately see a soft landing from the most aggressive rate hiking event in history...the lag effect will prevail in due time. Ask yourself this...If the US economy is so great & resilient then why do the people in power need to deficit spend, especially given we are at maximum employment? Just makes zero sense...

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Bullish narratives I've seen published online over the last couple of years: 1. Gold is a hedge against inflation 2. BRICS Currency-it will be backed by gold 3. China is hoarding gold 4. Central banks are gobbling up gold Given all these narratives, one would think gold has some pretty strong tailwinds yet it has had 3 breakout failures since these narratives...

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I've been watching AMC for a couple of weeks thinking to myself...I bet the Taylor & Beyonce Concert films will bring some much needed love & cash to this dying theater chain. So a "bet" with myself is what I am taking on this morning based upon the following analysis: Positives: Yesterdays price cut right through the daily Tenkan Sen (thick red line) and closed...

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I've seen some trader's theorize the last couple of years that we will have another "roaring 20's" style stock market during the 2020's-2030's. If you compare the early 1900's chart, using a 6 month timeframe, to today's chart you would actually theorize that we are at the end of the "roaring" era. Since bottoming in 2009 we have "roared" up almost...

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Above is the yearly chart for SPX from inception in 1957...the last 3 yearly candles (2021, 2022 & 2023) look nothing like its past history. The red dotted lines are closing HIGHS followed by weakness year/s. Typically year 3, after a weakness year, either breaks out OR we are still in bear mode. So we are in unchartered territory right now...neither the bulls...

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Since 1974 Disney has always made a "yearly" higher low as depicted by the red hash marks on this chart. In 2022 it closed the year below the previous yearly "pullback low"...yikes!!! Could Disney be an early warning sign of what is to come over the next 10 years for the US stock market? It is a 1900's quintessential "American" company. Anyone looking to add...

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Many traders often overlook the Dow. IMO it is perhaps one of the most important charts to be following, especially on a yearly basis. It is "the index" used to gauge the overall performance of the U.S. stock market. So as the year comes to an end I've started to analyze yearly charts and found this simplistic analysis of the Dow to be helpful so thought I'd...

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Since the successful breakout of the March 2000 ATH back in Jan 2017; NDX has seen some possible breakout failures however those failures where short lived as seen in the above chart. The failures did occur PRIOR to reaching the psychological level of 10K however those failures never caused a breakdown of a previous low...so in essence it's a great chart showing...

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So many bulls and bears are stating their cases on social media as to whether or not a bottom is in so I thought I'd take some time today to examine what a daily bottoming process looks like using SPX. Standard & Poor's 500 was created in 1957 and since then it has gone through 9 bear markets (Defined as a GREATER THAN 20% decline on a CLOSING basis). 2022...

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The SPX consolidation around the orange downtrend line is confusing every chartist out there for good reason. Why-because it is giving off conflicting signals and history really isn't much of a guide. Typically when you draw a monthly downtrend line using 3-6 months of a trend line and then you have an monthly open or close ABOVE the downtrend line (orange line...

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Residential housing is a huge asset class so I wanted to analyze it in simplistic format. I broke up this chart showing the period during the mid-1960's through early 1980's when inflation & interest rates took off and the period during the 40 year long downtrend in interest rates; which ended a couple of years ago. So we have another break in this chart that...

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Do you really need to ask if interest rates have topped out? Head & Shoulders patterns at tops and bottoms are generally spot on...this Inverse H&S pattern occurred at a bottom, clearly broke out from the neckline and just wants 5%...at a minimum. "Don't fight the Fed" The Fed is not going to pivot to the downside anytime soon...why would they? What makes anyone...

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A recession is not bullish for the overall market so studying how the civilian unemployment rate behaves before a recession hits should help tune out any and all noise from talking heads. The red shaded areas in the above chart shows past recessions. The red circles within this chart are times when the unemployment rate "flattened out" before either...

Vixtine Updated 

Monthly line charts are so simplistic; yet so important to analyze. If you've read my previous DOW posts you know we are closely following the 2000-2002 bear market cycle vs. any other bear market and this chart further confirms my thoughts. Notice how the VIX today (2017 to present) vs. the VIX 1994-2000 timeframe is diverging with the S&P. Both are making...