WTI recent trend implied 2018 bull market is gone: i) WTI fell 4 consecutive weeks, the first time since Aug 2017; ii) fell below 100MA, the second time in the last 4 weeks; iii) fell below medium-term uptrend for two consecutive weeks; iv) WTI closed at the lowest, second time in three weeks. Technical indicators, like RSI and MACD, indicate WTI likely to be...
WTI pattern was in line with our forecast - weak at the beginning, gradual recover in the later of the week. However, rebound trend was weaker than expectation.
Recent WTI performance has broken a few uptrend patterns: i) WTI fell 3 consecutive weeks, the first time since Aug 2017; ii) fell below 100MA, the first time since Sep 2017; iii) fell below medium-term...
After sharp fall in late May, bond yield is back to an alarming level 2.97%, very close to 3%. Bond yield may exceed 3% before FOMC meeting. It's time to be cautious on the over-bought equity market again...
We expect WTI to bottom next week, and WTI will likely rebound towards end of the week..
i) During bull market, all downcycle was short and will last around 11-16 trading days. Current downcycle already lasted 10 trading day. if the above hypothesis is correct, current cycle will be finished coming week.
ii) 100MA is a strong support, and WTI has never exceeded...
Last week, market is concerned on additional crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia in 2H18. We expect WTI will pose further downside next week. And we expect next week is crucial to the medium-term uptrend of crude oil because:
i) WTI has never fallen below 100MA since early Sep. Currently, 100MA was around US$65.1.
ii) WTI has been growing under an uptrend...
WTI has been reached new 3-year high for three consecutive weeks. It's time for investors to take profit.. before hitting new high because of three key reasons:
i) Last week, WTI has reached the upper boundary of long-term uptrend. Everytime touched the upper boundary, WTI will retreat.
ii) WTI RSI is falling and will likely fall below near-term uptrend line.
iii)...
20MA past 50MA seems to be an important indicator of the near-term upside of the 10Y yield. We have to be more cautious on equity market in May.. Long VIX.
WTI outlook was negative in next 1-2 months due to: (i) 50MA falling the first time since Mar 2017. Based on historical record, 50MA should fall around 1-2 months before recovery; (ii) double top at US$65; (iii) falling RSI and MACD
