Market have exceeded blue line. Diametric ended.
Watch the red line, both vertical and horizontal. If market go through the horizontal one or exceed the vertical time. It will have new high.
If not, risk is still there to drop.
Took some time on BTCUSD. The first drop, marked with the big blue dot is ended. But not on the lowest point.
The rally can be confirmed as an impulsive wave, so we are looking at a retrace began middle 2019 not to go under 61.8% of the rally to 13000+, of course in logarithmic scale.
It's now finishing the last leg of drop, which has shown some feature of...
Corresponding with Gold and GBP, the price gonna osicallate up and down, finish a terminal pattern and then boost up. Looking for the middile of 2020.
Could do some short volatility strategy now, or neutral strategy to collect some premium. Or simply follow the structure and trade the waves.
I entered an iron condor spread, if the price stays between in 1.30-1.34 on Feb.07 then profitable, here is the idea:
1. Pounds stays in the area and follow a fashion of triangle;
2. After the triangle end, starts to decline, good chance to go long on volatility, maybe naked put or put debit spread.
There is some reason to backup the idea that WTI is forming the 4th leg of a terminal pattern:
1. The current drop cannot exceed 55.05, otherwise the idea failed;
2. The minumum drop length is met, yet the time not;
3. After the 4th leg finished, the dotted trendline can be put at a right place;
4. The 5th will be violent, at least the length of the blue...
As shown, a diametric is over. Another bearish pattern is unfolding. Can't tell what the fashion will be yet.
1. Price might retrace and give us another chance to enter short position;
2. The price will drop to at least the area between the 2 horizontal line, possibly exceed the bottom one;
3. The bearish pattern will last at least to March, 2020;
4. After the...
Now there are some reason backup this idea. I will:
1, Close the put option tonight (it won't go much lower compare to the time decay I'm paying) ;
2, Wait for some chance enter a call debit spread (the movement coming next will not be as violent as before) while enter a naked call in silver (it will be much more violent);
3, Wait for the terminal to end and enter...
Quite simple logic.
Step 1. The big drop from late 2017 is not a impulsive wave, which make it a 3-wave pattern, therefore it's more possible a wave B is unfolding;
Step 2. The raise from late 2018 (wave B) didn't meet the minimum time requirement, the blue vertical line.
Step 3. The raise from late 2018 (wave B) didn't meet the minimum price requirement, the red...
Based on Wave combined with some rules. Currently I would prefer this version of analysis, more detail of other alternatives (most of which are not reasonable based on both rule and logic) will be added in comments.
Triangle now, after a zigzag D wave there will be around a 50%-61.8% decline, after which comes a huge thrust out of the upper boundary.
Begins Chinas gold era.
