SPY has a resistance bar over the top that it is has tried over and over to break out of, but continues to fail. There is a gap above and a gap way down below...
Which will fill first?
SPY is going up for another retest to break this top resistance. If it breaks, we will see a pretty good move to the upside in my opinion.
What do you think?
A rejection here will show bullish for stocks (usually does). This would also validate a double top, rejection in a strong resistance zone and possibly send GLD back down to $162.50-$165. As you can see that volume spiked around the resistance zone showing that BIG sellers are there waiting to get their short position.
I actually really like this chart. It literally has a simple pattern, buy the bottom envelope (green arrows) and sell the top envelope (red arrows). The biggest thing that sticks out to me is the volume (pink arrows). Before every bounce to the upside, there is always a HUGE volume spike. Will we see another move up following this same pattern?
As you can see using the Nadaraya-Watson indicator, every time it closes under the bottom of the envelope or above the envelope, it makes a full move in the opposite direction. I would not be surprised to see CVS move back up to around $92-93 in the next month, month-and-a-half.
I think we get a short-term run to $103.30-$105.50 to complete a weekly H&S pattern and let the algos take the cheap shorts as it will also be in the .618 Fib retracement zone. Then we SBUX will be around $70-$75 by July.
