WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3 Updated 

Stochastic and RSI suggest we are at oversold levels while price action moves into strong support. Expected move upward.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

Strong correlations between USDJPY, TAIEX, and AUDUSD.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

The chattering class is clearly leaning towards the sentiment that Chinese growth is stabilizing as GDP growth was strong (compared to its 6.0 to 6.5 percent range) in conjunction with strong PMI numbers and, as can be seen by the Shanghai Composite, strong capital markets. While Europe is unsure what to do with the euro from the prospect of Brexit still on the...

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

While the Russel 2000 struggles to gain traction, SPX is making a run at record highs in spite of its down day today. Divergence suggests either Russel 2000 will charge back up or SPX needs to come back down. Kind of the same story with SPX and oil as well. Troubling or opportunity?

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

While price action moved away from year-to-date record lows, its still close. Volatility will come with a vengeance as S&P 500 experiences melt-up. Good price to hedge.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

Impossible for this volatility to remain where it is. Eventually we'll get something to pick up, but since Brexit CBOEs currency volatility dropped off a cliff.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

Trading within range becoming smaller and smaller. Volatility incredibly dropping even further.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3 Updated 

EEM is mostly made up Chinese A-shares meaning this ETF is primarily dependent upon data coming out of China. Recent data is quite promising while the US-China trade war negotiations continue to show positive developments. Exports data coming out of China is positive this morning, moreover the US will not keep on putting pressure on China politically according to...

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

This chart is pretty simple. It basically reminds investors that the Taiwanese stock market is highly positively correlated with US equities using the S&P 500 index as the primary proxy of US stocks. We can see that positive correlation with the correlation coefficient below. The Nikkei 225 is as well. However, TAIEX RSI is nearly flashing overbought and all three...

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

Much of my argument is embedded within this picture. The content there speaks for itself. Overall, I withhold a net short position on USDJPY given the technicals for the four hour chart and I think a pull back below this resistance range is in the cards given the technicals.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

USDSGD broke its long-term trendline during Thursday trading, but moved below this line during Friday trading in spite of the fact that oscillators are pointing towards a bit of an upward turnaround. RSI signals a neutral reading while the stochastic oscillator suggests USDSGD could make a leg up higher. Clearly, a floor appears to be around 1.3446 and 1.3453 with...

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

Exports data coming out of China is positive this morning, moreover the US will not keep on putting pressure on China politically according to Bloomberg. Also, data suggests the trade surplus increases while credit growth beats estimates. Could see 3 to 6 percent increase in Shanghai on Monday if all else is equal.

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While the inverse relationship between USDCAD and oil is strong, the long-term symmetrical triangle pattern that is forming with USDCAD suggests the dollar will move higher and in turn USDCAD. If the pattern is an upward channel, then dollar strength is stil the trend. We could also go into the fundamentals of oil, the S&P 500 and how each of these enjoys a strong...

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Stochastic flashes overbought while RSI is approaching this level. However, the Chaikin oscillator suggests there's some room to run higher. However, long-term 2018 downward trending resistance is a bit strong to overcome. Overall, sentiment is short, but need some more convincing as there is probably still more room to run upwards especially given the fact that...

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

This chart tells us a number of important points. First, the S&P 500 is strongly correlated with oil prices, but is now diverging with equities gaining the most ground. This is either extremely troubling or the S&P 500 or quite promising for oil (which is down for today). Second, oil is flashing overbought with RSI oscillator. However, we could also be witnessing...

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

While there is divergence with the relationship between oil and the US dollar to the Canadian dollar, this trend still holds. In all likelihood, the price of oil will continue to be closely tied to the price of the US dollar to the Canadian dollar.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

AUDUSD and iron ore have been quite tightly correlated over the years as it is one of Australia's number one exports. Now there is divergence which should be looked upon with high skepticism. Either the Aussie dollar will rise on the prospect of higher demand or the price of iron ore will retreat on the continue lack of demand if the supply side cannot remain limited.

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3

US President Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Stephen Moore, was on Bloomberg this morning touting his unconventional ideas on monetary policy. During the interview, he suggested the Philip’s Curve was broken (it somewhat is) and that instead the Federal Reserve should focus on the relationship between inflation expectations and commodities,...