WillSebastian

06:33

WillSebastian

The case for USD shorts VS Yen Longs grows and we can see momentum piling in. This is causing an attack on immediate lows, but will we fall further?

WillSebastian

Anyone who benefitted from Push 1 (hype) will be those who locked in gains. Pepe struggling to rally within new found downtrend, despite risk on environment externally. Any long best placed far lower, under prev lows.

WillSebastian

GBPAUD sentiment is mixed over the last few trading days (into last week). Losing steam to the upside as BOE cuts VS AUD slow easing. Maintaining short bias.

WillSebastian

There has been a slowdown in price movement lately as markets cool. Looking slightly more 'risk on', yen pairs are slightly recovering but there is no real strength. May see higher moves for re-shorts nearer key moving averages, should markets have reason.

WillSebastian

The drift towards key price action areas is giving way to a clear rebound and long side momentum. Looking for moves back towards local range TL.

WillSebastian

Gold has mostly retained its strength amid Chinese Demand, new highs being formed. Slight fall today but no real whack lower. Would not be shocked if highs are returned/fall to MA's within solid up trending market.

08:01

WillSebastian

Here's a full run down on the Technical/Sentiment case pre US data today. Interesting Pre Jackson Hole Symposium Analysis.

WillSebastian

NZDUSD amongst many other currencies has rallied significantly against its USD counterpart. This comes as the cut expectation / soft landing rhetoric increases. May see slightly higher before turnaround.

WillSebastian

The significant momentum behind AUDUSD comes around as risk on Market mode returns. Happy to scale into shorts amid long term USD strength, near term CB case may deter this. Markets, similarly to NZDUSD are still trying to work out where they sit within the current tightening range. Real Sentiment inflow required for any real change of trajectory.

07:32

WillSebastian

Rebounds across the Yens have brought some relief to the recent fall (risk aversion from NFP) + a more hawkish BOJ. Yens also got hit again into Monday as we are seeing a more hawkish BOJ stance Post Growth Data. Here's the tech/sentiment case.

WillSebastian

Going into Monday we can see a risk on environment that hasn't faded. Despite this, Yen inflows due to a more hawkish BOJ have pulled Yens lower. This opens the doors to sentiment/tech trades on the basis of an easing FED VS A more hawkish BOJ. Would only re-short for this reason on pops higher, as shown (blue arrow). Very careful on any longs.

WillSebastian

Closing out FRI Oil fell considerably within a near term uptrend move. Room persists either side of the closing range (longer term).

03:30

WillSebastian

Gold largely has become unpinned with its traditional sentiment drivers. This creates inherent danger, and makes the case for rebounds off highs somewhat questionable. Nonetheless, there is a risk averse bias that can be taken, reflective of price movements. Here's some levels and strategy to note.

WillSebastian

As Markets turn 'Risk On' we are seeing inflows into the NZD and weakness in currencies like the CAD. Rate change / easing speed supports a similar case. Happy to dip buy.

WillSebastian

Risk Sentiment has not led to huge confidence in crypto assets as it normally would. Lacking momentum but still rising gradually over time, due to other sentiment factors. Levels above and below labelled.

WillSebastian

We have seen AUD strength as of late as risk off markets cease. Going into a more risk happy environment, coupled with RBA stance is assisting the rise of this pair. Likely room higher. Happy to re-short.

WillSebastian

The long term trajectory of the NZDUSD naturally has suited to the downside, as being the global FX reserve currency, the USD has retained strength over GBP/EUR/AUD/NZD etc. The stage of the market now is mostly influenced by risk appetite. Slight rebound into this AM to the upside. Generally, looking for shorts to trade the overall long term bias is ideal....

WillSebastian

Sentiment out of AUS last night has has rallied AUDCAD. Seeing moves to the upside within a longer term trajectory (mostly propelled by easing cycles). Labels noted.