WillSebastian

08:32

WillSebastian Updated 

Core PCE comes out this afternoon and can give an idea of where inflation sits in the US. It's wise to know before hand where you sit technically, and fundamentally so you can pre-plan areas for entry and exit. Here are the potential moves on the cards for US forex pairs like the EURUSD.

WillSebastian

USD weakness has fed into Scandinavian pairs alike many others. Current channelling has brought us to preferable support for long side entries. Exits come early similarly to the upside inline with these channels. Simple Tech rules to study.

09:16

WillSebastian Updated 

Employment data coming out the US may provide an insight into the Labour Market and also the potential view of the FED and their policy stance. This kind of data can easily shift US pairs, so here are the areas for NZDUSD that I am looking at. Covering both the Tech and Fund areas.

WillSebastian Updated 

GBPNZD has rallied inline with the sideways trend apparent since about 15 May 2024. This reflects strongly the mid term sentiment case, which does not show a huge deviation between the two. Technical Bias - Price exists now at key price action levels for shorts with some signs of rejection. Sentiment/Fund bias - Longer term outlook is short for GBP VS NZD....

WillSebastian Updated 

Previous long zones have presented themselves repeatedly around the current area, and lower highs have brought a continuous return to these areas. This is because the long side bias that existed for so long around UK Stocks has started to fade. Buying, therefore, comes with caution. Would not be shocked if you get lower nearer 8060. Only RE-shorting on pushes...

09:35

WillSebastian Updated 

Lots of Traders often get confused about about trends on several different timeframes conflicting each other. The answer to this is very simple, wait for your bias to line up. 1) Identify Technical areas across your highest and lowest timeframes. 2) Understand the long and short term sentiment. 3) Wait for correlation for entry. We will also cover AUDUSD post...

08:00

WillSebastian Updated 

EUR/GBP has ranged for a significant period of time between 0.935 and 0.835, measured with an avg high/low. Historically for this period there has been no enormously outlying difference between the demand for either currency, hence this range. Going forward, we can use these areas and our knowledge of current sentiment to judge future entries. This must include...

07:41

WillSebastian

The German CPI data MoM coming up this afternoon (UK Time) could shock Markets in the Eurozone. If inflation is sticky, then it could change the thinking of ECB members and continue EUR strength. Longer term, EURUSD has been trending to the downside on slight negative sentiment bias (EURO VS USD). We may see price rise to continue this trend over time. We can...

WillSebastian Updated 

GBPJPY like various other yens has rallied for a considerable period and caused a huge divergence in the mean or average value. This is why the extension from Key Moving Averages is so apparent. 1) From a technical 'value' perspective, short side bias prevails (see below). 2) Sentiment bias - no real shift in reasoning not to buying GBP over JPY due to mon...

10:34

WillSebastian Updated 

US GDP Annualized for Q1 is coming out this Afternoon. This is a red tag event and could impact markets, especially the USD. It is a key economic indicator and any misses can cause reaction. This will help give us direction on the sentiment case of the USD and the FED. Here's my planned levels and sentiment bias.

WillSebastian Updated 

GDP this AM has caused minor GBP strength, pulling EUR down against it. Drop back comes immediately into local support, giving the case for any new longs. 1) Tech bias suggests longs on dips to next level of key PA (Resistance). 2) Sentiment bias supports this as no real change after Data. Awaiting PCE.

09:40

WillSebastian Updated 

Before Canadian CPI comes out we can assess the current technical and fundamental standing of various counterparts. CPI data is important as it gives a larger indication of where Central Banks will sit on the next decisions they make about rates. CAD has lost value VS other currencies for a considerable amount of time as they have taken a dovish approach in a...

WillSebastian Updated 

EURCAD has vastly fallen over the recent period as CAD Sentiment settles, Euro weakness shows through. The overall trending Market is reflective of the speed at which both CB's are taking a dovish monetary policy stance. 1. Tech bias comes with several key factors - Key Price Action levels, trending channel, low stoch Osc. 2. Sentiment case supports long term...

WillSebastian

The crypto market in June has fallen to early comfortable levels likely as a natural part within a long term up cycle. 1) Early demand areas exist below and above in near distance. Unlikely sentiment bias will knock you either way until something occurs. 2) Sentiment is tentative with some crypto demand being taken out by elevated bond yields and just as a wider...

WillSebastian Updated 

The UK major stock index (FTSE100) has seen sustained falls over a reasonable period of time. Currently there is no strong case for up moves, and similarly down moves. However, It is ranging to the downside on a slightly more 'unsure' outlook, as summarised by the technicals drawn. 1. Tech bias illustrates losing of value and a push to lows that ultimately may...

WillSebastian

The BOJ has mentioned they are more concerned with the rate of decline in Yen value VS the ultimate price. This is important - because the pace at which the Yen is losing value against all major currencies is concerning. It is definitely the case that lower rates and a weaker currency is beneficial only to a certain point, and we are going beyond that...

WillSebastian

Managing a forex-heavy portfolio requires systematic rebalancing to ensure that asset weights remain aligned with your goals. Systematic rebalancing involves adjusting the weights of assets in a portfolio to maintain desired risk and return characteristics or mitigating over-exposure risks. This process can mitigate the impact of market volatility and currency...

WillSebastian

We have seen a further rally since the odds of cutting did not drastically change post CPI in Canada. We know BOJ is potentially looking at intervention, just as before. 1) We are hitting where we feel previously and larger orders came in the Market. This gives us a technical short area. 2) Sentiment is the same in regards to the above. 3) Risk management...