Woerle

Woerle

BTC has formed a Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern with a downside target between 75,000$ to 78,000$, i.e. the 1.618 and 1.414 Fib-extensions. As price has passed the 0.618 Fib, the next resistance level is the 0,786 Fib. What does it mean with reference to VIX (see my previous posts on it)? As the VIX and BTC have an inverse price relationship, we can expect a...

Woerle

The number of stocks below their 50-day moving average are nearing the 3.618 % Fib-Extension, which does not mean it cannot reach even the 4.618 % level. Most likely to my experiance, stocks will recover short term after todays "witches" have finished their "rituals". I expect intraday to become ugly eventually at some point to draw the candle of a "hanging man"....

Woerle

In my last post I showed the inverse relationship of BTCUSD to the VIX. Looking on the current price trend of BTC and relate VIX/BTCUSD, we want "to make a shoe out of it". I related therefore the VIX to BTCUSD instead of BTCUSD to the VIX to put following question accross: - Given the fact that BTCUSD and VIX are inversely related - how deep do you think the VIX...

Woerle

...... adding to my previous post on Bitcoin versus Tesla, I want to share with you this chart: Bitcoin versus VIX, which is inverse correlated in its cycles. What is interesting here is the early change in trend towards the new cycle movement of VIX. Especially in these drastic price movements, it would have been a good indicator for the price prediction in Bitcoin .....

Woerle

I was playing around and came accross an amazing cycle syncronicity between the Bitcoin price in US$ and the Tesla stock price. I'm sure such similarities are existing also between other instruments. But I was astonished by the precission of the timing between the two instruments. By diving deeper into this effect, one can extract some insights when the time...

Woerle

RUT has created an interesting daily price chart: 1. it shows a pole/flag pattern with a potential to move another step upwards - but how much? 2. it shows an inverted Shoulder-Head-Shoulder pattern, which points to a potential move - eventually erractic ? - towards 2100 points. 3. the cyclical pattern let us expect a feelable trough only towards end of...

Woerle

There is an interesting relationship between VIX and Treasuries in an inverse movement to each other as I published in August 2023 already. It seems there will be a touching point very soon, which means interest rates will rise again (for what ever reason ! ) and VIX will go up. I'm looking for the VIX low towards end of November, i.e. peaking of the S&P 500 and...

Woerle

As expected, the upward move has occured and will most likely fail at a level of 4560, which is a resistance level in the RENKO chart as well as in the weekly and daily Fib-Extension levels (shown as a yellow bar). From a cyclical perspective we enter a period of high risk of a deeper reversal (shaded in yellow) and a weak market until mid of October 2023. As VIX...

Woerle

Traders have been hit on the wrong foot with the unexpected deeper technical correction and the general mood is changing therefore. Currently, indicators are showing over-sold conditions and we should allow price to reverse to the upside technically from a level of approx. 4330. Nevertheless, cyclically, we enter a cycle trough into end September/mid...

Woerle

A lot of traders are positioned on the long side in treasuries, betting on FED to reduce rates soon (extreme volumes of call options in the market) - to me a total illusion ! ! ! 1. We do not have to hope in trading, because it ends up in losses, rather listening to the FED-speak carefully. They still give hawkish remarks and the financial enviroment from the...

Woerle

Despite the news we see the VIX-Index is moving downwards, which makes sense if one visualises the money-flow energies. We will see the lowest VIX by end of April/beginning of May. From mid May onwards we can expect a critical time for the stockmarket with a bias of weakness or even down-trend as the VIX has the bias to move up strongly. We do not know the...

Woerle

I'm not recommending to anybody to invest in NatGas for retirement, because you have to be able to know the risk with such an investment. Nevertheless, we can play with that thought for educational purposes: see my analysis what I did for myself only.

Woerle

Considering money flow cycles, the Dollar Index will weaken further until end Febr./beginning March 2023 to a level of approx. 99.35, which is a good indication, how long the Stock Market and precious metals are going to run upwards.

Woerle

We will reach the trough of NatGas very soon - my expectation is end of February 2023 - and from there, we could get a rapid recovery into the 4... or even 5.... level, which will reward very well considering the short timeframe during which this will happen. Technical indicators are looking like they want to balance out, which is indicating a bottom of price...

Woerle

Considering previous top levels of VIX outbreaks we can conclude that it reaches the apex around the 78.6 Fib-level. As the up-coming cycle down leg is the most anticipated since one can remember, I believe expectations to reach all time highs in VIX will be too much speculative - at least at the first attempt in the first quarter of 2023.

Woerle

HYG has made an inverse H-S-H pattern with an upward potential of approx. 10%, if the current break-out of its neckline is sustainably confirmed. In case this confirmation comes, we will have a valid confirmation of another bullish move of the S&P 500 towards 4400 points. Good to watch out and not to become bearish too early without enough evidence.

Woerle

VIX is consolidating a bit longer at its trough, because so many cycles lining up. Such a phase of prolonged trough happened before as well. Indicators are in a phase to bottom out as well and we can expect an accellerated price movement upward during February/March most likely. The break-out of the green channel may therefore happen faster than anybody expects,...

Woerle

According to my analysis, there can be one retracement leg upward b4 we finally move down to the end trough of approx. 3500.