Yogigolf

Yogigolf

The SKEW has continued to go down reaching its historical lows of 2019. A low skew has virtually always been fairly strongly correlated with market bottoms. Many times the lows are put in before the SKEW bottoms. Although as it keeps going down the market can as well which has been occurring this year as since May the SKEW was certainly fairly low in the lower...

Yogigolf

With the market continuing to pull back into the Fed day tomorrow it looks like a good set up for a rally to the upper trend.A symmetrical triangle has formed and the moving averages are starting to coil together in an attempt to break the downtrend. Staying above the 200 hourly moving average is a line in the sand for this trade.

Yogigolf

Looks like there is a reasonable set up to run up into the Fed on November 2nd. With a breakout from the hourly bull flag a measured move would bring us right to target. If this does happen this would be a good set up for a quick short as Fed days typically come with a lot of whipsawing.

Yogigolf

It looks like if $TLRY breaks the downtrend shortly and confirm the break out it could run up to the 200wma or longer term downtrend. With some bullish divergence on the weekly chart this adds to the bullish case.

Yogigolf

It looks like DZC has finally formed its double bottom. From my previous idea posted in June I said it looked like the double bottom could have formed already or we were due for more rally then a retest of the lows which we have done. There is weekly bullish divergence forming all year as well. If this plays out it should play out for a multi year rally with the...

Yogigolf

Scotts Miracle Gro is at a very attractive valuation similar to its 2008 lows with a nice 5.5% dividend yield. It is also coming off its bottom trend with the RSI oversold similar to 2008. Over the next couple years it could potentially rally 200+ if the recovery is similar to the 2008 fractal

Yogigolf

The S&P500 has build some large weekly bullish divergence over the last several months with RSI creating higher lows and the S&P500 creating a lower low. This is also occurring right off the 200wma which can typically be a line in the sand for bull/bear markets. Based on previous recoveries from the bottom the market could rally until 4500-4600 before significant...

Yogigolf

DXY has been on a big run but it looking like it is at its top trend using monthly closes. RSI is also very high at 80 which is typically some type of temporary top. I would eventually expect DXY to come back into the 13&20mma and the 102 level which was a previous resistance.

Yogigolf

I believe the larger bottom is in although it could still be a slow recovery. Right now it appears we are at a reasonable support level at the trend line and 50dma. There also looks like what could be a inverse head and shoulders forming. While I’m not a huge fan of relying on these patterns a measured move could lead to 500-520 if it confirms.

Yogigolf

Best Buy is looking very attractive at these levels currently trading at a 8 PE ratio with over a 4% dividend yield at a 33% payout ratio. It is currently being priced for flat to declining revenue in the short term. Regardless of this their fundamentals are very strong and financials are very healthy so even in this scenario they will be returning capital to...

Yogigolf

The ARKK crash has extremely similar pattern to the 2000 crash of the nasdaq as you can see by the fractal. Where this looks like a strong support and ARKK could get a nice bounce it does not look like it will get back to the all time highs any time soon.

Yogigolf

After breaking support it looks like there is a good chance silver will trade down to the lows. Very similar pattern as the 2011-2012 distribution.

Yogigolf

$SWBI trades in these large cycles up and down due to the big swings in sales. After big surges up in sales typically those sales contract which we are seeing now. I think SWBI will likely trade down into the $6-8 range.

Yogigolf

Fundamentally this stock is going to become a penny stock or even go bankrupt if there isn't a speedy recovery in the cruise line industry. I see a lot of people thinking this a "value pick" and nothing could be further from the truth. Pre-covid between 2010-2019 their operating income fluctuated between $1-3 billion with $200-$300 million in interest expenses....

Yogigolf

It looks like the SKEW is going to bottom now or soon. There is a loose correlation between the SKEW and the risk in the market with low skew reading being better times to buy and high skew readings the market has a higher risk of correcting.

Yogigolf

The DZC, dynamic software index has crashed in a similar pattern to 2000 & 2008 with a similar magnitude with a total decline of just over 50%. The fractal structure is the same in both all cases as well with the slow chop down highlighted in the green ellipses creating lower highs and lower lows before the large capitulation crash into the consolatory double...

Yogigolf

Looking at the trends on TLT I believe we are at the bottom. I have set some rough targets based on the trends, previous resistance and fibs.

Yogigolf

The Fed really just follows the bond market when it comes to their rate hikes. Based on previous history when the 2 year and the 3 month invert the Fed stops hiking rates and potentially starts QE again. At the current trajectory it looks like this could happen by July/August at the current trajectory of this yield curve.