USD/JPY has been very boring until today. Note how price has broke above the lower distribution area and rejected an attempt to re-enter the lower distribution area. Bond spread rising and price action indicate a high probability of moving higher from current levels. Stop only needs to be below the high volume node of the lower distribution so risk reward looks good
Note the high volume demand and subsequent price move from 1.3500. Also note the lack of volume above this level during the up move. This is due to the market maker withdrawing liquidity in response to large volume demand. Expect 1.3480 - 1.3500 to be defended and look for opportunities to buy here. It has already been challenged and sharply rejected.
NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY have a strong correlation with the S+P which has clearly entered a bearish picture. Possibly on the fears of a second wave of COVID-19 looming. For a technical perspective @transparent-fx has a nice summary. But with S+P tanking and price action showing NZD/JPY struggling to break above the high volume point of control - the picture is is...
Like and follow if you would like more of this type of info otherwise I'm just talking to myself! Trade with a deeper understanding of the how the market works and how to value something you are buying or selling! How do you know if you're paying a good price if you don't know it's value!?!
See notes on chart - previous idea showing that value of UC should be...
My instinct says price going lower but valuation says different. Everything on this chart is indicating that UC should be valued higher. I agree it looks risky as the market is very bearish but I will look to enter around the 1.3450 area with a TIGHT stop unless it blows through that area. There's still a real possibility this will crush to the 1.3200...
This is not trade advice but just highlighting the importance of being able to value a market. Clear indication that gold was getting expensive while at a s/r area. Being able to value a market allows you to trade with confidence in the direction of the market and have a high success rate. Of course value measures constantly change and needs to be monitored!
The typical measures used to value USD/CAD are providing a mixed picture but on balance I think it favours even further downside. In addition, notice that USD/CAD has been closely following a very defined market structure. For those that don't know - bank algorithms and institutional trading activity will be very active at 50% moves from a significant impulse or...
Who can predict the future....no one! But NZD/USD is adhering to a very nice market structure. I never use fibonacci levels but I do use 50% levels to structure markets because this is what bank algorithims and most institutions use!! Notice the excellent correlation to market structure. Also NZD/USD has always shown a high positive correlation to agricultural...
Good rejection off s/r and bond spreads indicate value should be higher. Have taken a few pops for blue box as T1, then move stops to b/e. Will close out earlier if value line changes
