adgfdcoc

adgfdcoc

7 Oct 2024 CP 23.2 Tailwind -Fct 3Q24 highest in last 2 yrs. Nomally comes from Cash and SSO Headwind -4Q24 is off-peak season -> revenue drop QoQ but increasing YoY -Fct SG&A increasing from preparing to open new branch (RNK) in Oct'24 -> beware of Depreciation in Y25 -Adjust Relative Weight (RW) from 12K to 7K. Debating still on to push not to over 15K -Affect...

adgfdcoc

1 Oct 2024 CP 43.75 -Jump high reflect news (Korea chip shortage -> real demand still high) -If 2nd Oct'24 show uptrend -> follow buy -Momentum uptred (RSI/MACD) but not strong signal ((ADX & DI) -Money flow in (SmartMCDX/MFI) SL 40.25 TP 46.25 - 49.00

adgfdcoc

1 Oct 2024 CP 18.30 -End EW 5th wave -> wait retracement back to around 61.8% (16.5)- 50% (15.7) -Indicators (STOCH/RSI/MACD/SmartMCDX/ADX & DI/MFI) all show downward trend Y24 TP21 MOS 20%@ 16.80 MOS 25%@ 15.75 MOS 30%@ 14.70

adgfdcoc

USDTHB is showing recovery sign, in short term though. Due to the fact that, lately, TH economy is tied up with China therefore when they announced new economic boost up plan, SET and THB currency enjoy this short upside moment.

adgfdcoc

22 Sept 2024 Current Price 3.78 -Price Pattern shows symmetrical triangle -> wait till break trend line -> up or down -Fct 3Q24 core profit ~ 800-900 THB (+QoQ -YoY) Headwind -Fct 3Q24 OP is not good due to XPCL site (contribute 32% of total CKP's capacity) shut down (2 times) -> over flow water from China -La Nina will take less impact -> low supply -> NP...

adgfdcoc

Nonetheless ADVANC is in minor corrective action in which may be drew downward til 171 THB (end EW C pattern) depending on TH political (after election) and revenue effect from M&A cost and diversification in (2-3QY23). All indicators showing good shape in upward down trend. Her Y23 year end target has two scenarios. One is 250 THB and two is 280 THB.

adgfdcoc

Based on previous idea, downturn period affecting from various concern is starting. Hopefully the lowest before turnaround is not more than 1490

adgfdcoc

COVID-19 affect that catalyst all WFH gadgets has nearly to an end. COM7 is starting correction period in which it "might" be drawn down to below 20 THB

adgfdcoc

SET - BBL is key player under banking section. Through conservative management style and high NPL provision, their REV and Earing grow firmly not only from domestic but also from offshore investment in indonesia as well.

adgfdcoc

To reflect earnings play, SET 100 is projecting to be in short term revert (resistance @1613 & 1635. Next month Nov 2022 target draw down below 1600 (@1582)

adgfdcoc

Thailand SET Index is still struggling and under pressure from numerous external factors such as QE, Energy crisis, fear of recession etc. Sideways downward trend is expecting till end of 3Q22. Target bottom is 1475-1480

adgfdcoc

By using pitchfan and Gann Square to foresee how far SET and go up or down

adgfdcoc

By using both Elliot Wave theory and Fibonacci Retracement, Thailand SET index is under wave 5 and going to downward tread to set up motive wave1-5 and reactive A-C. Test 1st target at 61.80% or 1542 index