Spotted a potential head and shoulders pattern on this one. A strong break of support around 79.300 will push the price of this pair downwards for around 40-50 pips.
Price tried to break past 61.8 Fibonacci level but wasn't able to continue down which likely means the retracement stops here and possible continuation of original uptrend will start.
DOUBLE TOPS SPOTTED
Break on the neckline @ 1.35600 level will push the price further down.
For more conservative entry, can enter SHORT on the 23.6 Fibonacci level and TP on 38.2 and 61.8 levels.
For stronger confluence, wait for SMA crossover and bearish momentum candle close.
Enter SHORT when following criteria are met:
- Price crosses middle band and closes with bearish momentum candle
- 10 SMA crosses 20 SMA (middle BB) from above
- RSI below 50 and still pointing downwards
TP 1 at 38.2 Fib Level
TP 2 at 61.8 Fib Level
Can enter LONG position on current price level since price made a hard bounce from 23.6 Fib level and RSI is above 50 level and pointing upwards.
TP on top of Fib 2 or 78.6 level of Fib 1, depending on the strength of momentum when price nears the TP levels.
SL on the previous Fib level down.
PLAN
When price reaches 78.6 level on Fib 1 and RSI enters overbought...
Price just crossed 38.2 Fibonacci level and seems to continue shooting up going to 50 and 61.8 levels.
RSI is on overbought area but still pointing upwards.
Bollinger Bands sloping upwards and price is still on the upper band.
Upwards momentum is still present and strong.
TP at next Fibonacci level and SL on most recent swing low just right under the previous Fib level.
Price might still go down and retest 38.2 Fibonacci level as RSI still pointing downwards and price is approaching to cross the middle band from above.
TP Levels
TP 1: 38.2 FL = 1.24950
TP 2: 50.0 FL = 1.24700
TP 3: 61.8 FL = 1.24450
Price is on an upward momentum based on RSI and can reach 38.2 level easily and can continue to shoot up to 61.8 level.
Upon reaching the mentioned levels, look for signs of reversal and plot potential points of price direction and profit taking levels.
Price will go up to 61.8 Fibonacci level as RSI is pointing upwards and price is on upper band.
Upon reaching 61.8 level, price might reverse and can enter SHORT position with TP levels on the 38.2 and 61.8 Fibonacci levels.
Downtrend might end on the green zone since it is the 50.0 FL and RSI is in oversold territory and showing signs of going up.
If price reverses on the green zone, can enter LONG position with TP levels at 38.2 and 61.8 levels.
Price will continue moving up to 61.8 Fibonacci level and might possibly reverse at this point if it reaches overbought area on RSI.
If signs of reversal are evident on this point, enter SHORT with profit targets on 38.2 and 61.8 Fibonacci levels.
![USDJPY: USDJPY Swing Trade [LONG]](https://s3.tradingview.com/f/FL8CeDKW_mid.png "USDJPY Swing Trade [LONG]")
