asdf098

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 SPY could continue to outperform ACWX for another year as in 2015-2017 period. Main Thesis Weekly RSI of SPY outperformance nearing overbought area, which have historically identified about 3 months of underperformance when SPY/ACWX touches 50W or 100W MA. Monthly RSI also approaching overbought. Daily RSI seems to be rolling over,...

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 could retouch support (september 2020) General Thesis daily RSI bounced off oversold levels convincingly bounced off support from september 2020 convincingly next target 0.00078

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 could drop further to match RSI hitting solid line (oversold) General Thesis weekly RSI almost touching oversold levels, which have been pretty good entry points Currently hovering around support line of channel established in July 2014 Growth Gross margins (80%) is a lot higher than past few years Revenue growth (30%) is about...

asdf098

Conviction: 1/5 early trade: no confirmation of bottom yet General Thesis daily RSI showing bullish divergence, bouncing up from oversold levels Value P/S at historical lows although high compared to rest of market Potential Risks history is very short

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 potentially better entry lower around 14.25 General Thesis breakout and retest of off long-term (2008) downward channel resistance weekly RSI did not touch oversold, but seems to hold at historical turning point Growth N/A Value N/A Fundamentals & Balance Sheet low investment in energy production unlikely to have high energy...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 General Thesis Weekly RSI looks is attractive but likely to go lower Daily RSI turning up from oversold positions breakout from 2012 down trend resistance, could be the start of a leg up! target $60 Growth Gross margins (57%) is pretty steady, at/near historical highs Revenue growth (1.32%) around 75th percentile Value ...

asdf098

Low conviction trade bounced off 100 and 200 WMA, could be good buy point but Weekly RSI is not at super attractive levels. on the other hand, daily RSI has been hovering at oversold levels for about a month now, so could be good entry.

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 General Thesis weekly RSI showed a recent bouc bounced off long-term (2008) support trend line Growth N/A Value from other research, value of value (i.e. relative performance of value and growth) is at historical highs (i.e. very attractive) also, US outperformance to international stocks is hitting upper bound of uptrend since...

asdf098 Updated 

Conviction: 4/5 General Thesis reaching long-term upper bound on channel (2007) Weekly RSI showing bearish divergence weekly MA look like they might be turning over Timeframe: 1 year-ish Growth N/A Value N/A Fundamentals N/A Potential Risks continued inflation + seller pricing power could go on for longer

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 need to break above descending resistance line for confirmation. depending on speed of ascent, upper channel points to $300 target General Thesis bounced off long-term channel support since 1984-ish recently in 2020 also seems to continue channel since 1999 bounced off short term channel since 2020 lows weekly RSI about neutral ...

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 Relative performance of Health Care against S&P 500 ( AMEX:SPY ) looks pretty good for the long term. However, it recently broke below support sooo not 100% sure, possibly 90% sure. However, $XLV seems like it might be ready for a drop based on its own trends. signal for near-term drop of the markets?

asdf098

Conviction: 2/5 General Thesis breakout and retest of medium-term (2012) resistance line if inflation takes hold... silver could benefit, which could benefit silver miners Growth N/A Value N/A Fundamentals & Balance Sheet N/A Potential Risks been pretty weak lately silver OANDA:XAGUSD near support, can be risky

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 could go up some more in near term, but looks quite risky long-term (5+ years) General Thesis weekly RSI showing bearish divergence recently had multiple touches on long-term channel resistance (1991) Growth Gross margins (90%) at historical highs Revenue growth (18%) also high relative to own history, maybe 80th percnetile ...

asdf098

Conviction: 4/5 General Thesis weekly RSI just grazed oversold levels, which means it could go down some more bounced off long-term (2008) support trend line Growth Gross margins (50%) is pretty steady Revenue growth (23%) slightly above historical average, bounce from lows in 2020 Value P/FCF below average (25th percentile) P/S below...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 General Thesis potential bullish div on weekly RSI @ oversold levels could go down more to touch lower channel support (2008) fallen about 50%, normally fall 61.8% Growth Gross margins have steadily decreased since 2011 Revenue growth experienced high growth in 2020-2021, but have come down from 50% to about 15% Value ...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 could have another leg down to touch lower channel line (2008) General Thesis could have finished 3 leg down correction Weekly RSI at oversold levels - historically only touches this level once before bouncing Growth Margins are consistently falling since 2011 revenue growth trending up, new ATH Value P/FCF expensive...

asdf098

Conviction: 5/5 General Thesis bounce from long-term support (1997), although it was broken in 1998 although a bit of indecision around 2000 peak (dash line) Weekly RSI not quite at historical BEST buy point, but quite good hovering near 200W MA Growth Margins high and stable growth is low but around 50th percentile compared to self Value...

asdf098

Conviction: 3/5 could go down lower to the starting point of wedge or if we believe fractal from 2007/8 then there might be another buying opportunity with bullish divergence from Weekly RSI General Thesis bounce from lont-term resistance (2005) broke back into downward channel since 2014 Weekly RSI showing good bounce near historical support Growth...