VIX pattern suggesting market turn lower might not be too far off, volatility compression usually resolves with a breakout. You could play VIX seasonality with calls to hedge portfolio or take outright short positions among other things. In any case something to keep an eye on.
HPQ has been on the move lately, its at important resistance at the moment and given the continued momentum is likely to break out above it, macd zero crossing imminent. Two relevant targets are plotted which coincide nicely with swing support levels. Remember this is a monthly chart, so horizon is 3-6months here.
The blue bars on the chart 68.73% is the spread between SPY and IEF (short term 7-10yr treasury etf), at the levels only seen once before in 2007. We do have the Fed to keep things at these odd levels but the volume profile suggests some bumps ahead. Its something to watch out for. HYG price spread is wider than at the peak of the bubble as well.
Got tired of waiting for it to play out, open below May support and below the 0.236 fib level is a good sign of a decent bear. We have some support here and SPX daily bounced of MA(50) so we could see some hesitation. But I'm biased for some more downside, 0.618 fib is my idea target here, we'll find out soon. Measured move target was too darn accurate on this...
Would like a correction but this price action is looks bullish, 1725 maybe?
With after hours GOOG/MSFT/AMD etc earnings, this tech sector index might open at or below the near peak support tomorrow. There is no Economic release tomorrow so this will just be a follow through on bad news or more evidence of a dip buyers market.
Comments on chart Bears need to close lower soon if they want this to be any kinda of top. EURUSD bounce hasn't pulled us lower, SPX has stayed in range.
Was looking for a good indication of where this rally might top. The EURUSD bullish flag has good structure here and a potential long on the breakout above. Also, SPX moves with relative negative correlation to EURUSD (which means, up move in SPX will make relative decline or a much smaller up move in EUR and vice versa on the down move). If this hypothesis...
Support area in the fib confluence region, 0.618 and notice the over sold rsi, a rare level of 25 over the last 7years period. A bounce here would send SPY lower on the inverse correlation.
Friday SPX bounced off Oct/2007 high (well, came 1.5pt within range of it) and the bulls must hold the level this week, unless offcourse we gap down into open tomorrow and selling resumes. My bias is for a bounce here and I'm looking to SELL on a bounce type setup ($ES_F trading -6pts lower at the time of writing)
"Jefferson County, Ala., took a big step toward resolving its historic bankruptcy case .." reports NY Times (dealbook.nytimes.com) thought i'd take a look at CMF iShares S&P California Municipal ETF, doesn't look so good. Broke support on the weekly chart and doesn't look so good. Wondering if it takes SPY down with it.
Broke support level and seems bearish here. Price action has been weak lately and next support is about 1.5% lower which shouldn't be such a challenge.
Was looking at this grossly mismanaged company since its bounce from the dismal lows, seems the move might take it higher still. Target seems to be 29.21 in the short term, although I'm not trading in size.
Friday move into the close pushed us above trendline resistance above, but I'd say the rising wedge is still intact On a yield basis Relative to the index NASX, the futures are trading lower, usually bearish, remember this index has AAPL in it. BUT, there are no negative divergence on the daily scale and similar chart for ES_F(d) shows a larger break above...
FYI chart for those beginning trading, RSI is my favorite indicator. Some trades based on divergence that I did lastt few days.
I've posted this indicator alert few times before, for the past 2+ years a 4 hour RSI overbought has been a good indication of short term market top. Failed once as pointed out on the chart. We are at the channel high but the MM target is still a little higher so maybe a day or two before we see a turn lower. Lets see if the signal works again
We have GDP tomorrow but I'm thinking this market be in for a short term move lower. If I anticipate a peak based on today's price action the RSI seems to confirm weakness, also the volume profile has been declining on this push up from the MA(50). Now the Boston events pulled us lower and some longs got shaken out by the twitter news crash. I think this might be...