atkustas

atkustas

Chart turned into somewhat of a mess and with crude rolling over took profits and will look to buy on a deeper pullback.

atkustas

Gone. See ya at 0.80+

atkustas

Upside target hit in the 111-112 range. Now it looks like we're putting in maybe the most textbook head and shoulders top you'll ever see. Holding off til around FOMC to initiate anything but it would be on the short side.

atkustas

Break this 1.24450-1.24660 level and the floodgates open.

atkustas

Aussie Dollar, we have ignition. Lotta firepower behind this move with a massive short AUD position being held by asset managers. Enjoy the ride.

atkustas

Possible IHS bottom for Aussie? Although the positioning in this market has become so clownishly lopsided (dealers long 4.6:1 vs asset managers short 18:1) this thing can rip at any time now. Tempted to add another tranche right here but will wait for the formation to confirm then it's blastoff.

atkustas

Specs continue to rebuild a modest long position in Aussie Dollar. Dealers long/short is now long 3.5:1. Meanwhile asset managers are net short an astounding 10:1. We've overshot the trendline support and are setting up a MONSTER RIP here. AUDUSD will be a top FX performer through summer and into end of year. As soon as we break back over ~0.76 to confirm the low...

atkustas

Pretty harrowing decline in this one during Dollar short squeeze. Stayed patient and now I'm pulling the trigger in this as 1.35500. Let's see if we can't turn around here and press back up toward the 1.40s.

atkustas

Dollar Index hit around 0.618 retrace off the most recent move on massive short squeeze. Look for it to resume downtrend shortly and new lows before end of year. You can tell it was purely a squeeze via positioning since it rallied against every single major pair in the world, it's not like it was making a legitimate move in some places and not others. Blanket...

atkustas

Euro selloff has purely to do with positioning. Long position in EURUSD had gotten extreme for an extended period and a lot of those people are blowing out now. I'm getting interested but haven't pulled the trigger on it yet. Gotta see some signs of capitulation first. I will be in this on the long side eventually though.

atkustas

Find me a better trend in FX, hint, you can't. British pound was supposed to be toast after Brexit, remember that? Not sure you get a pullback to 1.37 but if so I'll be buying for another leg up.

atkustas

Finally worked off that last quarter's earnings abortion. Whole oil complex of stocks gonna play catch up to oil in the mid-high 60s even if crude just grinds there a little while. 70 seems more like psychological resistance than anything, it'll break in time.

atkustas

Bounce came in sooner than originally expected but what are ya gonna do. Not sure we even need to bounce at that TL anymore just slice right through it. Adding more to this short on any peek higher.

atkustas

If you aren't short bonds yet, I gotta ask you, what are you doing? Short bonds should be a core holding by now. I have no topside target for rates yet, just higher, and then more higher.

atkustas

Could just be playing out Scenario 2 that was laid out before. However, with RSI basically neutral and MACD rolling over again (although I'm not a huge MACD guy) I think you have to consider maybe a trip back to the recent lows before a sustained rally can take hold. I have almost 0 equity exposure on the failed Scenario 1 breakout so just watching what develops now.

atkustas

Honestly I have no idea what the bull case is here other than an oversold technical bounce. Maybe you sniff up toward 92 but I doubt it even gets that far. Been hearing Dollar bottom calls the whole way down from DXY 103-104. Getting long USD here beyond short term seems like a suicide mission to me. Rising inflation pressures domestically will put downward...

atkustas

Aussie Dollar really blowing out now, slams into that trend line going way back. Let's see how it handles it and go from there. I'd be interested to see positioning in this pair, gonna have to look it up later, but I imagine it is severely net short AUD by now. Have been looking to add to my earlier (poor) entry back into this position, sometime soon could be the time.

atkustas

Wow Aussie Dollar really blew out the last couple days. Was eyeing it for a re-entry and truth be told, took the first tranche a little early at the 0.77500 BB midpoint and it just sliced right through like it wasn't there. Anyway, we're back to the lows where it had based previously. At this point I won't add another tranche until the declining trendline is...