Although December 2014 was a choppy month, the long term bull trend is alive and well. The bears have a lot of work to do to change this thesis. I would not be surprised to see a correction to tag the Lower Bollinger Band / 0.618 Fib line at 157, at some point in the near future, as a true correction is long overdue. I still believe there is way too much...
With QE ending, I think the first half of 2014 will see a test of major support at 156.
$USDJPY looks like it's trying to break to the upside tonight. Let's see if it can test 105.4
Looks like a potential breakout if 16.5 can break and hold.
If this bounces off of 19.8 it could be a quick trip to 25.
Looks like it could test 170. Longer term bearish but short term it seems $SPY has some room for another push higher.
Will be intersting to see if the $SPY 50 or the 200 moving averages can find support during the current correction. If so we could see a rebound in the 148 or 124 ranges this summer/fall.
A review of the last couple of corrections shows that support was found at the 200 weekly moving average in September 2011 and at the 50 weekly moving average in November 2012. If the current correction is similar, the SPY will touch either the 148 or 128 range before bottoming.
Potential triple top on the 60 minute SPY chart. A break of 162.50 would confirm the move.
$USDJPY is making its 3rd attempt at breaking 100, and it looks like it might fail again. A break below support at about 96.65 would be be a correction warning for $SPY.