basquefxb1

basquefxb1 Updated 

Got a nice Head and shoulder Pattern forming at the 23% fib retracement level. I'm not a big believer in patterns, but I spotted it and thought I would draw. A Fundamental catalyst would help. If China and Trump reach trade agreement we could easily see a huge drop in gold.

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Fundamentally we know that GBP is strong and that CAD is weak. GBP had a good beat on GDP data yesterday. CAD has been weaker due to the neutral/dovish statements made yesterday by the Bank of Canada. There was a large initial move yesterday and we are currently in a pullback. While in the pullback the a Triangle/Wedge/Pennant formation developed. I know they are...

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There is a Pennant forming on the GBPUSD 15min Chart. There was a strong Downtrend that started late last night. It has since consolidated and forming the pennant. This pennant is in the form of a right triangle. The top of the triangle being the 1.3155 resistance level. Fundamentally, it makes sense to be short this pair as well. USD has been strong with the...

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A head of this week's ECB meeting we see the formation of a double top. This is a bearish formation. The volume has been declining from each top. Granted FX volume is not a perfect; however, it is still evidence in favor of this formation. The tops have bounced off the 200MAs as well. Both times the price action could not break through. One last note, this...

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CAD is strengthening because of the strong oil numbers. CAD also recently raised rates. CHF is a weaker currency generally. It was strong earlier int he week because of a risk-off tone. That tone is waning a bit. The pair has tested the 38% level twice. We can probably expect it to continue to rise for the next session. Need to be careful with news out of N. Korea.

basquefxb1 Updated 

I've been reading on Elliot Wave Theory lately. So I figure I'd give it a shot. Fundamentals are in line with this trade. While I know that's not necessary for Elliot Wave, It's important to me. We had the start of a 1 wave, which I put the fib retracement on. I thought it would only retrace to the 38.2% level, but it retraced to roughly the 61.8% level. I...

basquefxb1 Updated 

I am reading a book on Elliot Wave and am trying my hand at it. So we have the formation of a wave 1 that I drew a Fibonacci retracement on. The wave 1 has ended and appears to be in a triangle corrective formation that is reaching a point. By my analysis the wave should then break down into a 3 wave that is of more or less the same length as wave 1. The red line...

basquefxb1 Updated 

I'm selling the USDCAD. CAD has been strong lately. Even though CAD got rough data on Friday, I still think the bias for USDCAD is to the downside. It's at the 50% fib level on the hourly chart and it's at a level of S/R. My concerns: Oil and the US Durable goods data coming out tomorrow. However, Durable Goods data has yet to exceed expectations this year....

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China has recently been downgraded by Moodys. This should see AUD weaken. Why it didn't right away is beyond me... Anyways, AUDUSD has retraced. USD is strong than AUD. AUD has a had weaker data recently, and the USD should strengthen a bit into the FOMC minutes. There are some large options expiring today at the .7500 and .7420 levels, this is something to keep in mind.

basquefxb1 Updated 

GBP posted strong Retail Data this morning 2.3% compared to an expected 1.2%. This led to a breakout for GBP. It has since retraced to the 50% level for CAD. The target is the previous high approximately 80pips. And the Stop Loss is set just below a previous high and support level: approximately 50pips. With CAD it is important to keep an eye on Oil. So if...

basquefxb1 Updated 

EUR won't stop strengthening. GBP has had some weakness this is a small pullback, but it may be the best opportunity to hop in. S/L is set just below the 50% level: roughly 25pips. And T/P is set at the next Support/Resistance level: roughly 33pips. Although, I may move that up, if the EUR keeps up it's momentum.

basquefxb1 Updated 

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was surprisingly more Dovish than expected. This caused the price of all NZD pairs to weaken. This is a simple trade. Wait for the price to retrace and then hop in. There are two good spots: 1.58500 & 1.58050. These are the 28.6% and 38.2% Fib Retracement levels and they are previous support/resistance lines on the hourly chart. The...

basquefxb1 Updated 

Oil has recently risen. This helps the Canadian Dollar. USD has been week due to weaker than expected data on Friday.Hoping for a retracement and then riding the price down to 1.3600. Once there there is a tough choice. To sell, or to keep going. It depends on OPEC and oil prices. 1.36 is a Strong psychological level, it my be tough to break through. 1.3650 is a...

basquefxb1 Updated 

AUD has strengthened over the last 40hours. However, Commodities are still down and the fundamental have not changed. AUDUSD is at a resistant level, a pivot point, the 75EMA, and has retraced tot he .786 level. I'm looking a move further down. I've put a smaller S/L at only 20pips since if it breaks above that level than I suspect it will strengthen more.

basquefxb1 Updated 

NZD has been strengthening and should continue to strengthen into the RBNZ's decision. CAD strengthened off of good oil numbers, but that strength should be limited,

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NZD has retraced off of good dairy prices. But overall GBP is the stronger currency. It has retraced. I might wait for a deeper retracement as NZD has been oddly strong lately.

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Shorting the recent NZD bullish run. The reasons for the NZD strength were not fundamental. USD will gain strength against it again. It is currently at a resistance level. Concern: Stoploss is a little tight.

basquefxb1

EUR is strong due to it beating it's CPI projection 1.9% vs 1.8%. This is in contradiction to Draghi's speech. USD missed on GDP data this morning 0.7% vs 1.2%. So we can expect some weakness for USD. There is also a budget debate occuring in the United States today. This could lead to further weakness. Since it is Friday be wary of profit taking.