bearwhispering

bearwhispering

While the U.S. nonfarm payroll growth is still averaging 0.12% , just slightly below the average long term 0.14% growth in the past 12 months, the full time employment picture is somewhat grimmer. The U.S. full time employment peaked in 2023 June, and since there is approximately 1.7 million less full time employee. Probably not a sign for a healthy labour market.

bearwhispering

Leveraged money net positioning is reversing from extreme short levels in EURGBP futures. We do acknowledge the UK's recent positive political momentum amid political turbulence in the EU, however we believe the effect is in the price. On top of that, our fundamental macro model is slightly bullish EURGBP, certainly not indicating a further drop from these levels....

bearwhispering

The GBP is likely to fall back towards 1.27 against the U.S. Dollar based on global capital flow divergence observable in equity markets. The 1.27 level represent the point of control in the last 12 months where most transactions were taken place.

bearwhispering

The Euro is set to rally against the Hungarian Forint to test the critical 400 level which is widely considered as the main line in the sand. This is based on our equity market divergence model which shows that there were a change in the capital flows, as well as a general short term bullishness on the U.S. Dollar.