I expect short-dated treasury yields to drop, increasing their price
ie. buy short-dated treausries
could also go short ultras but my view is that yields will slowly come down across the board so I will not be buying the spread
COT positioning shows commercials favour shorter duration bonds
All stars aligned for dollar bullishness throughout September: -
- Relative strength against US treasury bonds, gold, and the euro index = undervalued
- Fund managers' net positioning is becoming increasingly bullish
- Retail traders' net positioning is extremely bearish, which is a strong contrarian indicator
- 10-year September seasonality = bullish
- Price...
Dear diary,
Here is a rough sketch of some key price action targets that I'll be using as reference points for the following couple of weeks.
Clearly I'm quite bullish up to ~$50k, which I consider a key psychological level; succeeding this target, I hope to see some clearer support levels.
postscriptum: I might post a follow-up analysis testing this thesis...
