bgreer009

bgreer009

Chart speaks for itself, should fall to the magenta line or below. This aligns with the backdrop of the FED attempting to suffocate the economy/free money flow with interest rates.

bgreer009

The US10Y is forming an interesting pattern that suggests a move higher is likely. I decided to compare the general trend movement to that of SPX. The green arrows represent my future base case. However, should the US10Y break to the upside of its current pattern now, the blue arrows represent that. The future picture is always fuzzy, but I’m estimating US10Y is...

bgreer009

Falling wedge formation chart. Moving into a higher volatility environment for the next few months. Inflation numbers should continue to fall quickly, especially relative to other countries as the real economy feels the lag effects of the FED rate hikes.

bgreer009

VIX price movement is clearly narrowing from a charting technical view, but within the economic fundamentals we have the FED raising rates at an extremely fast pace into a slowdown. Their publicly stated inflation projection was clearly wrong, I highly doubt they will squash inflation with much accuracy given these blunt force tools. For this reason the VIX could...

bgreer009

I think the chart speaks for itself. A break lower out of the channel is problematic, especially below 428. A break above this wedge in the channel, is a bullish scenario in my opinion.

bgreer009

Based on the updated chart formations, I expect the US10y to fall out of this rising channel with a floor of around 1.0, then rapidly rise to at least 1.95. This should begin to play out over the next 1-2weeks. The theory becomes invalid if yields continue to rise in the channel to above 1.36.

bgreer009

A similar pattern to 2020 is happening, but it appears elongated. I used colored arrows to divide this chart into segments. The blue arrows represent the yields falling to a base. The yellow arrows are the rates rising phase. The red arrows are the yields dropping in a unique curved pattern. It seems to break that curved pattern and start an upward channel. Last...

bgreer009

Inflation prints coming in hot(short term) because of a stalled reopening. Rumors of vaccine FDA approval in the next week. A large infrastructure package in the works, putting more money into the system sparking inflation fears.

bgreer009

With the slower/stalled reopening, money isn’t spreading out across industries and the globe as quickly as the FED planned last year. This will cause high inflation readings for longer, bond yields to rise and TLT to fall. Fear of the inflation report on the 11th seems to be playing out.

bgreer009

COVID, debt ceiling, drought, $DXY - A few of many things causing this TLT rise. Planning the government response and market effect.

bgreer009

Long TLT for now.