bitofamacroman

bitofamacroman

Decelerating inflation and decelerating growth for February indicates deflationary pressures in play. February could potentially see a nice correction or maybe a deep and hard one. Either way, the fundamentals as well as the volatility adjusted price range both indicate it is time to be cautious and mind your risk management practices. In any case the...

bitofamacroman Updated 

This could have just as well been 10Y. Forex or ZN Futures in any case a rate play in a cycle of increasing commodity prices (Cocoa, Soybeans, Corn, Cotton, Cattle, etc...) so to the 10yr rate in a period of accelerating rates and accelerating to stagnant growth. We are here at the edge or LOWER BOUND of a daily risk range volatility adjusted in a bull market...

bitofamacroman

Sort of just on the setup for this one. Appears to have found support at the .618 or thereabouts. Close today above the 89 EMA after a brief trip below the 144. Now we appear to have the MA's poised to make a reversal of the potential full cross so if we can get a close that breaks us out, prior highs are in sight.

bitofamacroman

Can take a stab on the decline here down to 180 level, SL below 169

bitofamacroman Updated 

Approaching the lower bound of its daily volatility adjusted trading range. VIX remains under 19, macro continues to indicate accelerating inflation and growth as the commodity complex shows several recent changes in trend such as oil from bearish to bullish. In any case based on these factors along with the technicals and wave pattern this appears a decent...

bitofamacroman

Today the correction from the new highs has reached the lower end of its trading range calculated using price and volatility which is 18650 the upper bound still calculates to new all time highs. The risk reward here is excellent.

bitofamacroman

Nearing support, Aussie market and economic data improving Nearing inflection point and at support level both chart based and macro math based.

bitofamacroman Updated 

No change, deflation and declining commodities coupled with Rate Increases and Hawkish Policy makes for rocky roads ahead. Growth slowing, profits slowing, layoffs ongoing, trend continuing, we are near the higher bound of. daily range based on price and volatility and the chart aligns. Nuff Said.

bitofamacroman Updated 

With divergence and no macro change and dollar at its lower bound euro near upper based price adj for volatility

bitofamacroman

Oil in general not just WTI. Top end of range, dollar v. yen, equities, interest rate, everything at edge (Bullish v Bearish) soft landing ?? Ha, I dont think so. Earnings Goldman -70% not 7 70. ISM, wow. Soft landing, I think not. Regardless, oil bearish

bitofamacroman

Economically, we are in deflation, the fed can raise all they want, we are in a slowing growth and thus profits, and falling commodity prices, used car prices, etc... Eggs will eventually follow as the grains and feed prices decline a bit. Regardless, we are at the top end of a volatility adjusted daily range, and in a now bear crude oil market.

bitofamacroman

Same premise as before only opposite direction. Peak was set a while back, we are looking at deflation, like it or not, as the fed raises rates, HA !

bitofamacroman Updated 

Fundamentals no change, all commodities on the decline, no sign of fed doves anywhere, profit margins and growth slowing and will continue, top end of range calculated with price and volatility in a seeming bear market rally and nearing a point on a chart that would seem ideal to stall a rally.

bitofamacroman Updated 

SL Below the lows. Watch lower time frame, nice LT pattern setup, entry here has a low risk profile with tight SL.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Macro picture has not changed, we are near the upper bound of a range based on price and volatility, we have had a nice little rally right into some old support areas, and watch lower time frame patterns for more confluence. We are initiating a position here. Also, yes, probably add at or near prev highs at 1.0050 if we get there and macro remains unchanged and...

bitofamacroman Updated 

Yes I said long, ha ha. Nothing has changed in macro land, this is just a stab at a turn for a little rally after covering all shorts. SL below the lows.

bitofamacroman Updated 

Short it Yet Again near the calculated upper bound of a range using daily price volume and volatility. It's also making a nice reversal pattern on a lower time frame and nothing has changed on the global macro front, in fact its worsened for Europe.

bitofamacroman

Head and shoulders not withstanding nor the break of the LT trend, this is a nice rally to take a stab at a short in the current commodity deflation we are experiencing. No real wave pattern yet even lower time frames but given the macro and the price, volume, volatility calculated daily range near its top end, that confluence or an emerging pattern is believed...