bmangold83

bmangold83

Bitcoin halving cycles chart with signficant bear market lows and highs marked. Bull, bear and consolidation phases noted in red, green and orange.

bmangold83

Looking at the last 2016 halving/bull market cycle several times BTC separated from the 120 day SMA by ~40% +/- 10% and then came back to test with the exception of the last event which tested the 50 day and then went on to separate 60% percent in the blow off top.

bmangold83

The blow off top late 2021/early 2022 should be a solid 50%+ separation from the 20W/140D SMA, last cycle 2017 was 67% separation, prior to that was 78% and prior to that was 90%. Separation from the SMA might be a good way to determine when to exit close to the top.

bmangold83

Takeaway is that the dollar was by far at it's strongest point at the start of the last cycle which could very well account for the slow start of the bull cycle and thus the extended length of the 2016 halving cycle. The 2016 post halving price of BTC was down for months after it and the correlated to a strong and strengthening dollar. Whereas this 2020 halving...