brown_maverick

brown_maverick

SGD has been holding up relatively well compared to other Asian currencies (RMB, JPY, ringgit etc) against USD over the past few years. It is one of the strongest currency in Asia, but not for long. Based on my analysis, USDSGD is in the 1,2 formation of the white C wave as depicted in the chart. USDSGD is the midst of completing the C wave of an expanded flat...

brown_maverick

Lately in the previous few posts on tradingview, I have been iterating on the bullish of DXY despite calls from many traders and analysts alike on the bearish of DXY. Their reason, impending interest rate cuts by the federal reserve. I am still skeptical on the number of rate cuts as well as when the Fed will actually take the first step to cut interest rate. The...

brown_maverick

Took a harder look at the DXY chart from October 2022 to end of December 2023. I managed to see a ABC structure with wave 'B' as an expanding triangle. Wave A and wave C can both be labelled as impulsive 5 waves. Wave C is 0.618 of wave A. We can say that the move from October 2022 to end December 2023 is corrective. And the subsequent move should lead the...

brown_maverick

Since end of December 2023, DXY has been on an uptrend. According to my analysis, DXY has completed a 5 wave impulsive wave, labelled as wave (1) with a fifth wave extension as depicted in the hourly chart. The ideal target price for fifth wave extension will be 1.0 or 1.618 of the length of starting wave to the end of wave 3 measured from the end of wave 4. In...

brown_maverick

The straight climb from Jan to July 2016 has been labelled by many EW analysts as wave 1 and the drop to 16 usd on Mar 2020 (during the covid period) as wave 2. I will, nonetheless, label them as wave W and X respectively as depicted in my chart. Wave W as a zigzag, wave X as flat (ABC), with wave B of X as an expanding flat. Using the rule of alteration, wave...

brown_maverick

Lots of bullish talk lately on gold and silver and that these precious metals are on the cusp of a next bullish cycle, with analysts and traders alike predicting the Fed will cut interest rate by the second quarter of 2024. I spoke to a silver trader this morning and he was extremely bullish on silver and even told me to start accumulating it. One EW analyst that...

brown_maverick Updated 

The recent week has been a good week for gold bulls, with gold reaching an all time high of 2150 on Dec 4 2023. It did cause me to have second thoughts whether I should re-visit my count and change my tone to a bullish count. For the past three tumultuous years, gold bulls and bears have been having a tug-of-war. Whenever gold reached the 2000 price region, it...

brown_maverick

I still hold on to the belief that the price movement of gold since its peak at Aug 2020 is a wave C, a 5 wave structure. But contrary to the popular belief that wave 1, 3 and 5 needs to be 5wave structure, there are literatures in the open that claims they can also be a 3 wave structure. Wave 1, as depicted in the chart, is a three wave (abc) structure with wave...

brown_maverick

People around have been asking me why I am bearish on gold and gold miners stock despite the war in Ukraine, Israel Hamas conflict in the middle east and even now, at the impending end of cycle rate hike by Federal Reserve. I am, on the contrary, very bullish on gold and gold miners' stocks, but not until a steep price drop in the near future. The sooner it drops...

brown_maverick

In my last update on DXY on 17 Jul, I predicted that the climb up "the wall of worry" of DXY from 99 region will be the 'c' wave of an expanded flat before heading back down again. DXY indeed went up from 99 to 107 region since then and then consolidating between 107 to 105 region in the past one month. Based on the structure of the impulsive wave, there is a...

brown_maverick

I decided to take a closer look at this ETF when an analyst wrote an article commenting that it is time to get bullish on 20+ year treasury bond etf, with strong support in the 85 region. This etf has been on a bearish trend since Mar 2020 and I would label this trend as an impulsive wave. As depicted in my chart, TLT is now on the path of wave v of a third...

brown_maverick

I wanted to post an analysis on GS but can't figure out on the fourth wave pattern of the third wave extension until recently when I saw a contracting triangle pattern forming. It's very common to see triangle in corrective fourth wave. not so in second wave. A decisive breakout above the resistance trendline of the contracting triangle will indicate the rally of...

brown_maverick

Since my last update on gold, gold has been trending in a meandering course. I took a hard look at its wave pattern and saw a double three Elliott wave pattern, a running flat (W), a zigzag (X) followed by a triangle(Y). We have a five wave impulse as wave i, a double three elliott wave (WXY) as wave ii. Once the breakdown of the b-d trendline in the triangle...

brown_maverick

I revisited the wave count of FXI yesterday and came out with an alternate 5-wave count compared with my previous analysis . The trend still remains bearish and there is no modifications in the target price. In this alternate count, we have a simple wave i, wave ii and wave iii as depicted in the graph and an expanded triangle as wave iv that consumes...

brown_maverick

Is the downtrend of gold miners stock resuming after the "bull run" from Aug 19 to 30? My primary analysis is based on Elliott wave. But it does not hurt to use candlesticks as an auxiliary one to reinforce it. A textbook example of the evening star appears in gold barrick. A gap up from Aug 29 to 30, with a large green candlestick on Aug 29, and a gap down...

brown_maverick

I came across an article recently about bullish on FXI. I had my doubts since I am not optimistic on the chinese economy as well as on the strength of RMB. So I decided to take a closer look at this etf index fund that tracks the movement of large cap equities in China. As depicted in my chart, we are now in the 5th wave of an impulsive wave that begins in Feb...

brown_maverick

I will consider the recent move from the Jul 20 (1987) to Jul 27 (1942) as a expanding leading diagonal and I will label it as wave i. It looks like a corrective wave, which may mislead people to think that the correction is over and gold is preparing for a rally. And the three wave (abc) retracement of 0.618 of wave i to 1972 as wave ii. We should see a drop...

brown_maverick

Since my last update on DXY, the index has been in the negative territory. And analysts have been bearish on DXY when the index broke the key support of 101 last week. Economists alike have reckoned that the interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end or close to it when the key inflation data came in less than expected last week. Looking at the chart, I...