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Warren Buffett Is selling stocks at a record pace and avoiding his favorite stock for the first time since 2018 (source: Yahoo Finance November 4, 2024) Nvidia's Blackwell GPUs are sold out for the next 12 months — chipmaker to gain market share in 2025 (source: toms hardware October 11, 2024). THE GOOD NEWS IS NVDA is incredible; the bad news is that it is all...

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves outlines a transformative budget aimed at addressing the UK's £40 billion fiscal gap through strategic tax increases while committing to public service growth. Here are the key highlights: (Source: The Guardian, FT) Main Tax Changes Overall Tax Increases: The budget introduces £40 billion in tax hikes, primarily targeting higher earners...

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Metals markets analyst Steve St. Angelo estimates that in the first half of 2024, the total weighted average cost of production among the leading silver miners rose to at least $26 per ounce. Silver prices have surged over 6%, surpassing $33.6 per ounce. This rise poses a risk of significant financial losses for five U.S. banks holding large short positions in...

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Last week, silver futures (SIZ4) closed at 33.94, marking a new high since 2014 and breaking above the previous 2023 peak. This suggests the potential for further rallies. The weekly spot chart indicates a measured target of 49. As of 18 October 2024, silver has outperformed other key assets year-to-date, with a 33.84% gain. Gold rose 25.32%, the S&P 500...

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After more than a year of manufacturing PMI stay below 50, meaning the manufacture activity is below average, recently (start Oct 2023) the manufacturing PMI seems recovering in US, UK, France, Italy, Greece. and if manufacturing is getting better, oil demand should be elevated and so the oil price.

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The Bank of Japan's consideration of terminating its negative interest rate policy signals a potential narrowing of the interest rate disparity between Japan and the US, possibly resulting in a short-term appreciation of the JPY. Wage However, Governor Ueda stresses that BOJ is closely monitoring the sustainability of inflation, particularly in light of wage...

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On January 1, 2024, Japan experienced a significant seismic event, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake. The aftermath is still being assessed. Examining past earthquakes reveals a pattern: after the 1995 Hanshin Earthquake, the Nikkei dropped by 19.75%, and following the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake with a magnitude of 9, the Nikkei declined by 18.49%. If history repeats, with...

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Recent polls indicate a decline in Rishi Sunak's popularity below that of predecessor Truss among pivotal British voters. The Tories face a net loss of 520,000 votes since the Prime Minister's October conference speech, intensifying pressure on Sunak as he strives to narrow the gap with Labour leader Keir Starmer. Historical data reveals substantial GBP/USD...

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Two distinct patterns have emerged in the gold market. First, a cup and handle pattern has been evolving since 2009, extending up to the present. Upon closer inspection of the handle portion, it becomes evident that it's shaping a broadening formation, specifically a right-angled and descending one. These combined patterns indicate significant upside potential for...

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Last week, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain interest rates at their current levels. However, Japan's Financial Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, made it clear that he is open to exploring various options within the currency market. Notably, both US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have hinted at the possibility of...

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During a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the central bank is expecting to raise interest rates multiple times in the coming months. Powell also stated that the Fed would be ready to speed up its monetary policy tightening if necessary. This announcement is consistent with previous hints from other Fed...

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There are three lines in the chart, one is S&P500, one is the US 10-year treasury yield, and one is the 3-month treasury yield. In the past, the SPX usually lead the 3-month yield is falling. This means Fed will cut interest rates aggressively when the market turns into a downtrend. However, it's different this time. The S&P500 had a low in Oct 2022, and the Fed...

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Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mestermost of whom, as of December, had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that, for her part, she expects the Fed's policy rate to need to go "a bit higher" than that and stay there for some time to slow inflation further. St. Louis Fed president Bullard doesn’t want to ‘stall’ on getting interest...

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Yesterday Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell’s speech on Central Bank Independence and the Mandate—Evolving Views" give no clue on the interest rate forecast or his view on the upcoming rate decision. At this moment, market expect a 75.3% chance hike 25 bps in 1 Feb 2023 and 24.7% chance to hike 50 bps. However, in Dec Chairman Powell expressed that despite the...

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EURUSD has finished rebound. If 2012's Italy debt is a problem and concern for us, Italy's debt to GDP ratio is around 126.5%. At this moment the debt to GDP ratio is already 150.8% in 2021. Stochastic is showing divergence. Today, EURUSD has a big downside signal EUR is going to test lower again. In May 2011, the 10 year yield of Italian bond is 4.88%, in 2021,...

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the MACD and Stochastic of showing lack of upside momentum and gold is likely to retreat before a significant rally, as Fed Chairman Powell have signal that rate destiny will be higher than the market expectation, means Fed is likely to continue rate high until something happens. When the Pivot comes, gold will head a long higher, but the technically analysis do...

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Hang Seng Index rebound should have finished around 19500. Stochastic is overbought and the rebound is still below 60 week moving average which means the downtrend have not been changed. Property market, and the lack of factory order in China, should still hit Hong Kong economy Next year, most of the Economy will fall into recession, even Taiwan Central Bank is...

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After the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week, the market take the message that Fed is going to slow down the rate hike, the rally is so hard, but the market is wrong pricing the Fed intend. in the speech Powell said, "We are tightening the stance of policy in order to slow growth in aggregate demand. Slowing demand growth should allow supply to catch...