bryonss

bryonss Updated 

Boomers keep entering retirement until year 2030. Millennials keep consuming until year 2035. Artificial Intelligence bubble could be like dot-com bubble, and push up Nasdaq to 200,000.

bryonss Updated 

Millennials and Boomers have opposite effects on stock market during years 2018 to 2030. The Value-Based Forecast for S&P 500 shows stock market hovering above 3000 during years 2018 to 2028. play.google.com As the last Boomers hit retirement, their drag on the stock market should end when Millennial consumption and investing is still growing until year 2035. If...

bryonss Updated 

CiovaccoCapital said Millennial consumption can drive up stocks until year 2035, just like baby boomers drove stocks up from 1982-2000. So, the green line is the optimistic forecast up to the year 2035 and the red line is the decline similar to the dot-com bust of years 2000-2003.

bryonss

Three possibilities for S&P 500 (SPX). The orange line looks likely right now.

bryonss

If trade issues resolved, green line. If tariffs crash economy, the red line.

bryonss

If SPX crashes to 100-Year-Bottom channel, it would probably rebound to the current channel. Bullish case would be to rise up to the 10-year trend line. Mild bear of another 15% drop would still result in SPX in current channel.

bryonss

Three possibilities: Green line is stocks go up, orange line is stocks dip another 15%, red line if stocks drop 50% to the 100-Year-Bottom zone.

bryonss

The blue line is most probable. Since no recession, the red line is very unlikely and the orange line is also unlikely. The green line seems to be losing probability fast.

bryonss

Amazon could stay in the uptrend (green line) until yield curve inversion (10yr - 2yr Treasuries spread becomes negative) and then crash (red line). Current news about yield curve inversion of 5yr - 3yr Treasuries is premature. That indicator was 4 years early in 1964, 3 years early in 2005, and usually was 2 years early.

bryonss

Since no recession, the red line is very unlikely and the orange line is unlikely.

bryonss

Imagining three possible outcomes for Nasdaq. Since no recession, the red line is not likely.

bryonss Updated 

On linear chart, Nasdaq has further to fall to resume channel.

bryonss Updated 

Looks like downtrend in spite of record earnings. Maybe this is from interest rates rising from near zero. (From 1942 to 1982 interest rates rose from record low to record high. Now that US dollar is being replaced by China Petro-Yuan, the US government will have to sell more Treasuries to fewer buyers to cover bigger deficit spending, which could drive up...

bryonss Updated 

Nasdaq may drop into lower trend-channel, which could be a 50% drop to the lowest trend-line.

bryonss Updated 

Uptrend in channel, but could have more correction.

bryonss

Yield curve inversions preceded recessions and stock market declines (by 3-22 months). fred.stlouisfed.org

bryonss Updated 

Long-term trend line and 1-year trend lines converge at 7850 in July 2018.

bryonss Updated 

Morgan Stanley predicted end of economic cycle in 2021. www.morganstanley.com And it looks like a yield curve inversion will occur in 2019 or 2020. fred.stlouisfed.org I combined the above ideas and drew a green line staying in the current bullish trend channel. I drew a red line showing a delayed bearish reaction after a yield curve inversion. Recessions...