This is a log chart of $RUT where it has been respecting the 200 week MA for three straight weeks. It also happens to be in the middle of a huge parallel channel dating back to the GFC bottom.
I don't use Elliot wave but this would play out all 5 waves to the downside. It all adds up. 200 week MA currently sits at 22k. I think that would be an ideal bottom. We will see!
Here is a multi year downtrend of the $NDXE/$NDX (log chart). It flipped the 50 week MA as support and closed last week above the downtrend line. This could suggest a relief rally in tech or a slowdown in FATMANG (FB, AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG). I favor the former.
Here's another perfect long term channel. It is a log chart of $TLT. I am long $TMF (3x leveraged ETF ). No price target yet as I want to see how this whole thing plays out.
Many people look at this chart and start their trend line in 1981. If you start it at the 1987 peak, you get more reactions including the one we just had. Is this time different? we closed above the 200 month moving average for the first time ever. If that is flipped as support then this time is different! I will also say that the inverse head and shoulders...
This log chart shows a 40 year channel of the US dollar. I believe the fun is over for $DXY. Apparently you can't increase the money supply by 50% in two years? Monthly RSI hit 72. We are about to see how transitory inflation isn't.
Notice the RSI getting rejected by the trend line. The VIX making lower highs is bullish divergence for SPX. Another bull case for pretty much everything since it’s all one trade these days.
I'm gonna go ahead and call a bottom here for tech. This channel is too significant to not at least get a dead cat bounce. AND we are sitting at the 200 week moving average.
If $SPY can catch a bid this afternoon and close above the trendline, that would be a great risk/reward trade. I'll give it a try if it happens but it doesn't look like right now.
It's not a coincidence that $BTCUSD is green already today. Look at this perfect distribution on $DXY. We have broken this parallel channel we've been trading in for almost a month. This should lead to a rally in crypto and equities.
