cerealpatterns

cerealpatterns Updated 

short semiconductors are on the verge of breaking down, and basically if we stay over 12.20 soxl im aiming for daily gap close, or near 12.86 . if we break this ascending tightening range to the downside and more or less double top 4hr resisting from top of envelope, around 12.30s or lower, im looking toward 15 minutes demand zone in low 11s maybe 11.30. short...

cerealpatterns Updated 

we are at a point where the use of credit to purchase staples has outpaced the use of cash to purchase other goods. the expense of debt in discretionary goods has reached an inflection point with the expense of transaction in basic supplies. the chart is at a high. the sell signal is in. count on the cost of goods being relatively cheaper, and that being bad for...

cerealpatterns Updated 

finally we see a daily bull move out of bitcoin, and the moment it appears to be reaching escape velocity a wild pullback appears. theres a chance this leads to consolidation towards signal (.5 of bounce/top of consolidative area lows weekly), but if we hold this pivot im looking near weekly highs (bottom of last monthly bounce). even if we trend back down toward...

cerealpatterns

we have retraced .618 from the initial drop in a counter bear trend pullback that has made lots of new longs, but a lot of signals remain sell. if we hold the .5 or continue immediately im long, and if we resist from the .618 and move lower im short. we could resist or support from lower horizontals, and im long/short on bounces from/resisting or breaks/trend...

cerealpatterns

bitcoin taking out highs 4hr would mean trend extend fib by time zone 5 is likely leading over .786 toward top of envelope with supporting ma, or about 16780.

cerealpatterns

at any rate the odds we come up to fail the $36 region, set a higher low and move higher seem likely. monthly is oversold diverging.

cerealpatterns

alt season starts when btcusd goes sideways in a macro bull market, or near bear market reversals. if we get continuation of this downtrend it will lead to wyckoff accumulation in spot btc, and the dollar will probably lose as the stock market gains when that reversal occurs. all of this pushes tether and alts up vs btc and usd, and that should cause reversal in...

cerealpatterns

semiconductors, tech, and the market could make a technical bull case for itself. im not ruling out the shot at a big comeback in 2023. if we turn a sellsided equillibrium to a breakout this is what a weekly reverse head and sgoulders could look like.

cerealpatterns

its really plain that this chart is not bullish. the last time we retraced over half a bounce we fell to the lows and made new lows. that means new lows for the broader market. i see an upside of 4% and a downside of 11%. i like selling any rip on large cap semiconductors by buying soxs.

cerealpatterns

im into the idea of a bull pullback from the lows in the nasdaq, but its clear that the hourly trend is reversing back to bear to match the overall downtrend. this should continue, but i wouldnt be surprised to find the broader market bouncing again, but until that happens im back in with my short nasdaq position; long sqqq. im thinking top of envelope, and then...

cerealpatterns

uvxy is in full breakout mode. if indices keep hitting new week lows we will probably see new 12 month lows. a good indication of this is a lot of 52 week lows hitting in stocks, and defensive sectors rotating out (UTSL staying green but hitting resistance/visiting 4hr lows), while $tick goes negative. vix has been coiled for this move for a long time, and it...

cerealpatterns

im not aurprised to see a bullish daily move from a defensive sectir in a bear market ending bull rebound. i think utilities are particularly good at catching this movement. this is a good etf to do that with.

cerealpatterns Updated 

i really cant stress enough how much you ahould dump this if you havent. entering heavy set short territory. stock is still a long term buy and hold, but this requires lower prices first.

cerealpatterns

looks like we cup and handle, and that takes us briefly over $27 in this short nasdaq fund. as long as we are over vwap this thing is a buy.

cerealpatterns Updated 

arent we all glad we reinvested early in semiconductors? i sure am. the short semiconductor etf is going completely insane. expect that to continue. if you look at the 5 minute you can see we are poised for breakout. we will probably go outside upper envelope, swing back to value area low before moving higher. i dont see anything thats going to stop the total...

cerealpatterns Updated 

supertrend is saying the longs are here to take a chunk out, and semiconductors are in bounce mode along with all of tech. still bearish on broader market weekly.

cerealpatterns Updated 

so instead ill just say that my favorite inverse index fund is in full breakout mode! nothing is stopping this from running away with everyones presents, so if you have a gift i would share it now. that being said we are at the top of nadaraya watson envelope, and the nasdaq is in extreme oversold territory, so im expecting a bounce followed by continued melt down...

cerealpatterns Updated 

at this rate we will revisit sss supply level, estimate and upper envelope, but it looks as if this will be stiff resistance followed by another leg down to end 2022.