cerealpatterns

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if we see downside in semiconductors and rotation between sectors tha is slower and more masured leading to slower losses in indices, and the countertrend movement breaks out into a larger rebound i would call this the beginning of a broader market recovery. the inverse is that we traverse slightly lower, and extend backwardation with resistance around estimate...

cerealpatterns

hourly threatens to return to bear momo with price right around estimate and dropping. got a channel, path and support/resistance/pivot drawn. were likely headed into another drop in this overall sideways action.

cerealpatterns Updated 

trend based fib extend says a tightening range is forming with consolidation. if we stay under pivot ive drawn how we might revisit signal and estimate using horizontals as a guide.

cerealpatterns Updated 

whats so problematic about nasdaq futures right now is the fundamental ask behind what i call good or bad credit (cheap/long v. expensive/short) and sellers are facing raising rates, which is willing to be fed by more 0 or negative rates in future. if you study the actual hawkish language behind the feds stance you will find its actually soft. the reason we had a...

cerealpatterns Updated 

we are at the low end of top anchored vwap. if we get over this pivot and support meaningfully we could see a test of sss moving average or signal around upper horizontal and gap close. if we remain beneath and resist with sss signal and qqe staying red id look for that lower horizontal.

cerealpatterns Updated 

the sell sided equillibrium weve entered into daily is either a very weak reversal at best or a bear continuation pattern daily. ive drawn how that could play out with horizontals (dashes = pivot, solid = support/resist).

cerealpatterns Updated 

if we continue this bear reversal in biotech labd may cross signal and estimate bull and reach for upper envelope in a reverse head and shouldern pattern. if we carve a path higher in major indices i expect biotech to follow.

cerealpatterns

with uvxy at all time lows and major indices still selling off a bit theres good conviction a bounce in vix may be underway as futures consolidate. heres what revisiting signal and estimate may look like.

cerealpatterns

if we get continuation on hourly uptrend we could complete or confirm daily bull reversal. these are levels and patterns i am watching for based on sss and nadaraya watson. tsla is close to breakout levels, and is testing weekly mid range short term.

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if we break higher on this reversal it could see a tightening range turn into a change of momentum with short squeeze. if we stay beneath this pivot and trend continuation we should see bottom of envelope and lower horizontals.

cerealpatterns

well noone does. these indicators usually tell us a thing or two about what might happen. i drew a ghost feed, but this is mostly guess work.

cerealpatterns

this is one scenario ive been looking at where broader market futures starts a other uptrend. bullish continuation short term toward daily top of envelope, revisiting estimate by end of week/beginning of next, bottoming out end of next week/beginning of week after next, setting higher low and regaining uptrend by end of nov/beginning of dec. alternatively if we...

cerealpatterns

prepared for different scenarios but overall continuing bear for biotech. this sector is going to get hit hard from annual plans for labs, and whether we hit top of envelope first or revisit bottom sooner were still in an overall end of bullish corrective phase from bear market leaving lows open for test.

cerealpatterns

dollar up, crypto down id like to take a moment of silence for all the 2022 bulls. were in a basement btcusd and will stay there until monthly log support shapes up. 17k still likely to hit, but we will have months of essentially sideways action at this rate. unless something changes, the daring bet is scalping this weekly sideways between 17 and 15. after we...

cerealpatterns Updated 

wyckoff distribution terminally, bearish divergence from oscillation, multiple regression breakdown, sinking nadaraya/sss... still in for that 4hr h&s.

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seems to be in correction mode 15 min could end up in head and shoulders 4hr

cerealpatterns

still in bear dollar daily, but 4hr dxy is at bottom of envelope and rebounding. id imagine this is a bounce into a lower high and lower low.

cerealpatterns

were in a countertrend daily rally for gold as well as equities, and where theres normally a hedge we see direct correlation to both breaking out. the price doest tend to spend much time outside of the envelope. id imagine one final thrust into sss supply zone before revisiting estimate and lower envelope band simar to ghost feed is in order.