cerealpatterns

cerealpatterns

its fantastic that major indices are still managing to find areas of support on the way down. this to me is indicating when we do finally recover it will happen in a reliable manner. its also telling me that these areas are not max pain. to find a bottom permenantly id like to see bullishly diverged oversold levels in high volume. right now signal is still red,...

cerealpatterns

there may be confirmation of a bottom if we continue this pullback to higher levels daily bitcoin. by every measure theres been a slow daily grind up after the last distributive weekly move. if we retrace to a reasonable lwvel i imagine reviaiting trama isnt a problem. thats about 10% up. envelope is fonally tilting up although sss ma is still acting as...

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why do we pay so much to securitize capital? anyway were coming to a head with front month spx futures. the s&p is reacing the bottom end of envelope, and revisiting trama or sss ma seems likely. i bet if we breech pivot we see upper horizontals, and if that lwvel resistswe see lower. if vix is raging monday im still not interested in calls until we see bullish...

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whether we blow through this vwap and smash though the sss supple zone, or pull back to retest sssma and trama, it looks like the upper nadaraya watson envelope gets touched again. im waiting on another sell signal from that strategy. it seems like theres this scenario where the vix gaps up and takes off, but more measured and muted drawdown has been the norm for...

cerealpatterns

the hourly is looking oversold, so id imagine we have some rebound in vix, but the overall daily trend is threatening to confirm return to bear vix while broader market bounces. if we get spx, ndx making new lows of day simultaneously with multiple sectors like xlf, soxx in the red a return to bull vix could happen (highlighted areas where nadaraya watson envelope...

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vix and vix products are selling off outside upper envelope. if we remain in a daily uptrend there could be room to jump back in but my guess is the market is bouncing for now.

cerealpatterns

either we hit this weekly sss demand zone and bounce, or we blow through it and make new lows. we are at bottom of envelope, and it appears to be turning. if sss signal stays red and we break 362.17 i thikk were in for 350.77 if not much lower around 320. if we bounce off that 363 level, and we get over the 377 range ithink were in for 396 maybe 405. horizontals...

cerealpatterns

if we ride the top of this envelope higher we could visit 201, if we reject from those levels and drop further btcusd is still in a bear trend.

cerealpatterns

right now there should be rotation out of small caps, and that should hurt this index, but if levels are respected favorable to changing sss and envelope to bull that could be bought up if we reject from these levels it will favor new lows all over.

cerealpatterns

UVXY is demonstrating higher lows and higher highs. the current pullback is likely a bounce in SPX, but if that fades we should see new low in indices with a new daily high vix keeping UVXY trending up. if were stronger in indices overnight and tuesday we should form a lower high and roll over UVXY. upper or lower horizontals are price targets, and dashed line is...

cerealpatterns

nasdaq us large cap semiconductors are carrying big tech right now. if they drag the market lower im bearish on the broader market. if we bounce in this group especially NVDA and AMD i think were headed for a test of the weekly lower high around 5500 translating to a $15 SOXL. if we bearflag, and head lower id imagine were in for much more of a drop. the pivot is...

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i wont be surprised if the greenback looses steam around the top of this envelope and revisits trama, bounces to form a lower high, and rolls over to form a h&s. the key is getting a sell signal near the top there.

cerealpatterns

were at the lower end of this nadaraya watson envelope, and it looks like nasdaq is at least going to pull back to SSS moving average or TRAMA. if we get a buy signal near the lows i think price could follow this path.

cerealpatterns

xbt is trending in bull reversal, and we have an hourly pullback from the current day high that is showing price will revisit one of these levels. the most bullish case is we stay long sss and qqe 15 minute and bounce off signal or moving average and that is marked out in dark green. the slightly less bullish case is if we go for a touch of rising trama. if we...

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like the title says weve just touched trama on the hourly and its still sinking. if sss and qqe remain long i would long if we stay over this pivot or support lower horizontal, and i want to short a bear breech of this pivot or a rejection from upper horizontal.

cerealpatterns

if we get support over this pivot and the 0.5 retracement level id imagine we would have a bull pull up to a sell the rip level. if we get resistance to this pivot i see that well have a continued selloff to lower horizontals. if we have resistance to upper horizontals i think were at a sell the rip level. if we support along lower horizontals i see that were at a...

cerealpatterns

i onlywant to long bull breech of this pivot, short the upper horizontal, long the lower horizontal, or short a bear touch of this pivot. if sss and qqe go long, im long. if qqe and sss go short, im short. if trama gets touched,and heads down with price that adds to a bear case. if trama acts as support and rises that adds to the bull case. this applies to the...

cerealpatterns

we can look at signals all day and say theyre bullish, but the reality is that they are only bullish until they're not. this means thatwhen facts change you have to change the trade to meet the trend. i would trade a break of this pivot as bullish, and staying below it as bearish. we could follow the green or red path. sell if qqe or sss go red.