The corrective wave since June 23rd seems complete. Targets for the ensuing uptrend may be determined via the bearish shark pattern and the Fibonacci levels. A rise above these values should lead to a significant year end rally.
Silver has a great opportunity to break out of the triangular formation within October. Apart from waves a-b-c apparent completion, the reaction is supported by a rounding bottom as well. The critical test for the future trend will arise, when silver approaches a value of 16.6, which is situated on the upper line of the declining channel. Based on extrapolated...
In spite the overwhelming bearishness in the gold market, I have the feeling that maybe this corrective cycle since 2011 has seen it's lows. The extended (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E) Elliott waves appear to be complete, unless the latest z sub-wave is composed of yet another extended sub-structure of the a-b-c-d(now)-e(future) type.
During the whole of September oil is in a consolidation mode via a complex corrective wave 2. It appears that the last extended wave E is composed of yet another extension of the w-x-y-x-z type. As long as prices remain below the negatively sloping trend line K-L, there is a high probability of low retesting. Re-examining wave 1 it appears that it is composed of...
Oil is very close to completion of a wave (2). There is one dip in RSI remaining and simultaneously PMO is still in sell mode (possible target 42.26). The ensuing wave (3) could lead prices towards 52.16 and even higher. The situation (i.e. overall trend) will be re-evaluated afterwards, by examining the next correction characteristics.
The usual inverse dollar-gold correlation is firmly in place with one minor difference regarding a value paradox. In particular, when the dollar was around 12,050, gold traded around 1,080, whereas presently with dollar at 12,090 gold persistently trades around 1,120 (1,123 at the moment). Perhaps gold will "surprise" us at a later stage with a swift and decisive...
The price levels around 38 provided so far a strong support, as can be affirmed by the three white soldiers candlestick formation of the reaction. The major test lies ahead at 52.16, which represents 61.8% Fib. retracement of the last declining wave and in addition is situated within the Ichimoku cloud. Decisive break of this level could herald a major trend...
It appears that since January 2015, gold follows an extended (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z) corrective EW pattern. The main question now lies, whether 1167 was the secondary (X)-wave termination, albeit covering a brief period of 32 days, or by targeting (say) 1200 a more expected 62 day period might take place for the ending of this particular reactive wave. The final...
An hourly bullish shark pattern offers a rise possibility for the gold mining stocks (GDX). If this evolves into a 3rd wave type advance, then a target around 18 (actually 16+0.618x(16-13)=17.85) could be possible (covering the period that leads towards the FOMC meeting at 16-17 September). After the completion of this reaction, the declining trend is expected to...
A well proportioned AB-CD pattern could in conjunction with a recent bullish crab formation (the validity of the bullish shark pattern was affirmed with the reaction at 15.6) lead a positive price movement towards the levels of 16 to 17, provided that the support of 14 is held (otherwise values of 12 to 10 will most probably be within reach).
XIV is one of the most profitable assets over the last few years, closely following the SPX rise (particularly high correlation until July 2014), although by inception its function is to model the VIX inverse. At present it appears that a corrective (I)-(II)-(III) wave is developing, of which the last one is pending. Critical resistance level is a zone around 48,...
The RSI and WT momentum indicators have clearly formed a negative divergence, which is an advance signal for a future downtrend, in response to the relevant ascending trend of the peak SPX/TNX values. Further decline of this ratio is directly associated with possible TNX rise and/or SPX fall. This ratio could be a major warning for a highly probable stock market...
At this juncture there are 3 possible scenarios for future Silver prices, scenario 1 (Elliott correction 1-2-3), scenario 2 (Wolfe wave 1-2-3-4-5-6) and scenario 3 (Rounding bottom).
A bearish crab pattern may point towards a value of 26 with regard to NUGT prices. A downward breach of support line K-L cancels the above scenario.
Major peaks (particularly) and troughs (with some phase difference) can be timed well via the application of 2 primary (f1 & f2) and one secondary f3 (for interim exceptions) sine waves.
Before the final drop to cycle lows (1000 to 900), gold has a last chance of a 3rd wave reaction. By adopting the 4hour chart, a bearish bat gives a target of ~1200 (rather conservative), whereas based on wave height 2, the extended Fibonacci levels of 1.618 & 2.618 yield targets of 1204 & 1223 respectively. Waves 4 & 5 are also possible, yielding higher...
The NYSE Composite is close to initiating a long and intensive corrective C-wave. The A-B-C pattern indicated on the chart refers to a correction of a 100+ years of "continuous" (on average) rising trend covering waves (I) 1929, (II) 1932, (III) 1966, (IV) 1974 and (V) 2007.
The DAX index values oscillate within a descending triangle and a downtrend channel. Furthermore the Ichimoku cloud and the MA 20 or even 60 are anticipated to provide resistance to any upward movement, including of course the upper triangle line. The short term corrective wave pattern is of the type W-X-Y-X-Z, of which the final Z wave is expected to reach the...